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Alperen Sengun’s scoring trend meets a defense limiting interior output.

• Has cleared this just once over his last 5 games, averaging 15.0 points
• Has missed this in back-to-back games vs. Charlotte, including just 7 points on February 5
• The Hornets rank 3RD in defensive rating and have allowed the 4TH-FEWEST points over their last 5 games

When scoring form dips against a tightening defense, point totals compress.

Bub Carrington’s scoring consistency meets a defense that bleeds production to guards.

• Has cleared this in 86% of his last 16 games, averaging 12.3 points
• Has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 matchups vs. Indiana
• The Pacers have allowed the 6TH-MOST points over their last 20 games

Indiana allows opposing starting shooting guards to score 19.0 points per game, the HIGHEST mark in the league, creating a strong scoring environment. My #1 picks might struggle against a tough matchup.

Immanuel Quickley’s recent form lines up with Chicago’s defensive slide.

• Has cleared this in 5 of his last 6 games, averaging 22.2 points plus rebounds
• Logged 26 Pts+Reb in his last matchup vs. Chicago
• The Bulls have allowed the MOST points in the NBA over their last 10 games

When pace and defensive efficiency dip this sharply, combo production rises.

T.J. McConnell’s multi-category production aligns with one of the league’s softest defensive stretches.

• Has cleared this in 3 straight games, averaging 17.7 PRA
• Averaging 19 PRA in two matchups vs. Washington this season
• The Wizards have allowed the 2ND-MOST points, 2ND-MOST rebounds, and 3RD-MOST assists over their last 10 games

Washington ranks 4TH in points allowed to opposing point guards at home (21.8 per game) and plays at the 2ND-FASTEST home pace over their last 10, boosting possession volume.

Desmond Bane continues to operate as a primary scoring option in a premium matchup.

• Has cleared this in 4 straight games, averaging 25.3 points
• Dropped 44 points in his last matchup vs. Sacramento
• The Kings have allowed the 3RD-MOST points over their last 15 games and rank 2ND in points allowed to starting SGs (18.1 per game)

Sacramento also allows the MOST free throw attempts per game to opposing shooting guards (4.7), adding scoring equity at the line.