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Jake LaRavia’s role remains elevated with Luka sidelined, keeping his scoring floor intact.

• Has scored 13.7 points per game over his last 10 home games, 3.7 above his season home average
• Scored 13 in his last matchup vs. Dallas
• The Mavericks have allowed the 5TH-MOST points over their last five games

With Dallas playing at the FASTEST road pace over their last 10 games and the Lakers ranking 10TH in pace over their last five, shot volume rises.

Cam Thomas’ volatility meets the league’s toughest defense.

• Has exceeded this just twice over his last 15 games, averaging 17.6 PRA
• Oklahoma City ranks 1ST in defensive rating and has allowed the FEWEST points this season
• Opposing shooting guards have attempted the FEWEST free throws vs. OKC over the last 20 games

When scoring efficiency tightens against elite defense, PRA totals compress. My #1 pick is a different Buck player who’s expected to smash the glass.

Jusuf Nurkic’s all-around production continues to clear this number, and the matchup boosts possession volume.

• Has cleared this in 81% of his last 16 games, averaging 32.4 PRA
• Posted 38 PRA in his last matchup vs. Portland
• The Trail Blazers have allowed the 6TH-MOST points over their last 10 games

With Utah playing at the 2ND-FASTEST home pace over their last 25 games and Portland ranking 6TH in pace over their last 15, extra possessions push PRA upward.

Jrue Holiday’s scoring and playmaking remain active in a high-tempo environment.

• Has cleared this in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 25 points plus assists
• Logged 35 Pts+Ast in his last matchup vs. Utah
• The Jazz have allowed the MOST points and assists over their last 20 games

Utah ranks 2ND in tempo at home over their last 25 games, and Portland leads the NBA with 16.1 offensive rebounds per game over their last 10, extending possessions for assist chances.

LeBron’s shot volume continues to spike in this matchup.

• Has cleared this in 3 straight games and did so in his last matchup vs. Dallas
• The Mavericks have allowed the MOST field goal attempts in the NBA over their last 20 games
• Opposing starting power forwards have attempted the MOST field goals per game vs. Dallas this season

With both teams ranking top-10 in pace recently and Dallas playing at the FASTEST road tempo over their last 10, attempts accumulate quickly.