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Jabari Smith’s scoring and rebounding surge meets a defense trending downward.

• Has cleared this in 5 of his last 6 games, averaging 25.7 points plus rebounds
• Utah ranks as the 2ND-WORST defense over their last 20 games
• Opposing starting power forwards have attempted 5.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games vs. Utah, the 3RD-MOST in the league

Utah also allows the MOST three-point attempts per game to opposing starting power forwards, boosting Smith’s scoring ceiling.

Ty Jerome’s all-around production aligns with a fast-paced, high-scoring environment.

• Has cleared this in 6 of his last 7 games
• Logged 36 PRA in his last matchup vs. Sacramento
• The Kings have allowed the MOST points over their last 15 games

Memphis ranks 4TH in pace at home this season and 7TH in offensive rebounds over their last 10 home games, increasing overall possession volume. My #1 pick? A Piston who’s about to pick pockets all night.

De’Aaron Fox’s rebounding role remains limited in a slow, possession-reduced matchup.

• Has cleared this just once over his last 9 games, averaging 2.3 rebounds
• Has missed this in 4 straight road games
• Detroit has allowed the 2ND-FEWEST rebounds over their last 20 games

With the Pistons playing at the 8TH-SLOWEST pace over their last 5 games, total rebound opportunities shrink.

Malik Monk’s scoring rhythm meets a defense allowing elevated production.

• Has cleared this in 3 straight games, averaging 17 points
• Memphis ranks as the 2ND-WORST defense and has allowed the MOST points over their last 15 games
• Sacramento ranks 2ND in offensive rebounds as a road team over their last 5 games (14.4 per game), creating extra scoring chances

With defensive resistance dropping and second-chance points rising, scoring follows.

Kevin Durant’s scoring volume aligns with one of the league’s weakest recent defenses.

• Has cleared this in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 35 points plus rebounds
• Has surpassed this in both matchups vs. Utah this season
• The Jazz have allowed the MOST points over their last 30 games

Utah ranks 2ND in tempo over their last 10 road games, and Houston leads the NBA in offensive rebounds at 15.6 per game this season, creating extended scoring opportunities.

Last emails #1 pick was D. DiVincenzo: O 3.5 Assists.

Result: D. DiVincenzo: 9 Assists. That one hit.

Today's top pick is below.