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Kyle Kuzma’s rebounding outlook shrinks in a slow, low-volume environment.

• Has missed this in 5 straight games
• New York has allowed the 6TH-FEWEST rebounds over their last 6 games
• Milwaukee ranks as the 5TH-SLOWEST team over their last 10 games, and faces a Knicks team playing at the 5TH-SLOWEST pace over their last 20

With possessions limited and rebound chances reduced, volume dips.

Christian Braun’s scoring outlook is capped by pace and matchup.

• Has cleared this just twice over his last 9 road games, averaging 8 points
• Oklahoma City ranks 8TH-SLOWEST in pace over their last 10 games
• Opposing starting shooting guards have attempted just 1.9 free throws per game vs. the Thunder over their last 20 games, the FEWEST in the NBA

With limited pace and foul-line access, scoring opportunities decline. My #1 pick is another shooting guard, but with a much better matchup.

Duncan Robinson’s perimeter volume aligns with a defense leaking threes.

• Has cleared this in 5 straight home games, averaging 4.2 made threes
• Cleveland has allowed the MOST three-pointers in the NBA over their last 5 games
• Detroit ranks 3RD in offensive rebounds this season, extending possessions and creating extra kick-out opportunities

When pace and second-chance possessions rise, three-point volume follows.

GG Jackson’s expanded scoring role meets a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup.

• Has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 30.4 PRA while shooting 48.8% from three
• Is averaging 21.8 points per game over his last 5, 11.4 above his season average
• Dallas has allowed the 4TH-MOST points over their last 5 games

Memphis ranks 2ND in pace over their last 10 games, while Dallas ranks 2ND in pace over their last 25, maximizing possessions.

James Harden’s scoring and playmaking ceiling meets elite defense and a slower tempo.

• Has missed this in 6 straight games and has not cleared it once with Cleveland
• Detroit ranks as the TOP defense over their last 20 games, allowing the 3RD-FEWEST points and the FEWEST assists
• Cleveland ranks 4TH-SLOWEST in pace over their last 5 games

Add in a thumb injury and reduced efficiency, and combined output tightens.

Quick win yesterday with M. Porter Jr: U 3.5 3-Point Makes.

Finished with 3. On to the next one.

Today's pick is below.