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Donovan Mitchell’s rebounding ceiling is capped by matchup and recent form.

• Has missed this in 6 of his last 7 games, averaging 2.4 rebounds over that stretch
• Charlotte has allowed the FEWEST rebounds to opponents over their last 20 games
• The Hornets have also allowed the 3RD-FEWEST points over their last 20 games

With Charlotte playing at the 4TH-SLOWEST home pace this season, total rebound chances decrease.

Bub Carrington’s steady scoring role meets one of the league’s softest defensive stretches.

• Scored 13 points yesterday against this same Pacers team
• Has cleared this in 5 of his last 6 home games
• Indiana has allowed the 4TH-MOST points over their last 20 games
• Opposing starting shooting guards average 19.0 points per game vs. Indiana, the MOST in the NBA

With Washington playing at the FASTEST pace over their last 5 games and Indiana ranking 4TH in pace over their last 25, extra possessions fuel scoring. My #1 pick is another guard looking to crush his assist projection.

Andrew Nembhard’s playmaking role continues to trend upward in a high-scoring environment.

• Has recorded six or more assists in 8 of his last 10 games, averaging 8.4 assists
• Washington has allowed the 2ND-MOST opponent points per game over their last 20 games
• The Wizards have allowed the 6TH-MOST opponent assists per game over their last 20 games

With Washington pushing tempo and surrendering creation opportunities, assist volume rises.

Isaiah Joe’s rebounding role remains limited in a slow, possession-reduced matchup.

• Has grabbed four or more rebounds just twice over his last 12 games
• Brooklyn has allowed the 2ND-FEWEST rebounds per game over their last 10 games
• Oklahoma City ranks as the 2ND-WORST offensive rebounding team this season

With both teams playing bottom-tier pace recently and fewer second-chance opportunities available, rebound totals compress.

Rudy Gobert’s interior scoring aligns with a defense struggling to contain paint production.

• Has cleared this in 5 of his last 6 home games, averaging 14 points
• Has cleared this in 3 of his last 4 matchups vs. Dallas, averaging over 12 points
• The Mavericks have allowed the MOST points in the NBA over their last 5 games

With Minnesota ranking 8TH in offensive rebounds over their last 5 games (12.6 per game), extra possessions create additional scoring chances.

My #1 pick is below.

Quick reminder: yesterday's top pick was Kon Knueppel: U 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

He finished with 24 Pts+Reb+Ast. Easy cash.

Today's pick is ready.