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Monday Night Football (MIA @ LAR)

#6

👇 T. Tagovailoa: O 229.5 pass yards

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Tua Tagovailoa has been surgical this season, leading the league with a 70.9% ADJUSTED COMPLETION RATE—ranking in the 92ND PERCENTILE. This isn’t just a raw number; it’s a direct reflection of his ability to exploit defenses that fail to pressure him effectively. The Rams are THE 30TH-RANKED team in yards allowed per attempt (8.9) when unpressured and surrender touchdowns on 5.7% of such throws (28TH). BUT what truly sets Tua apart is his release time, averaging just 2.29 seconds—THE FASTEST IN THE NFL. This negates the Rams’ defensive strength, as they thrive on pressure but collapse against quick-strike passing offenses.

The Rams' susceptibility doesn’t stop there. Against play-action passes—WHICH TUA USES ON 31.3% OF HIS DROPS (3RD-HIGHEST IN THE NFL)—the Rams allow 10.4 yards per attempt, ranking DEAD LAST in efficiency. Miami’s offense also amplifies Tua’s opportunities by running THE 3RD-MOST plays per game (61.6), ensuring volume in a game projected for calm conditions that favor the air attack. SO, between Tua’s pinpoint accuracy, unmatched quick release, and the Rams' glaring defensive weaknesses, this number feels WAY-TOO-LOW.

#5

👇 T. Hill: O 69.5 rec yards

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Tyreek Hill is a nightmare matchup for any defense, but the Rams are uniquely vulnerable to his strengths. This season, the Rams have allowed THE MOST touchdowns and 3RD-MOST adjusted yards per target (13.6) to wide receivers on throws 10+ yards downfield. BUT the scheme mismatch makes this even worse for LA—Hill thrives against Cover 3 defenses, averaging an elite 3.04 yards per route run and commanding 28% of Miami’s targets in those situations. The Rams, unfortunately for them, run Cover 3 on 39.7% of passing snaps, THE 6TH-MOST IN THE NFL.

Adding to Hill’s case, Miami projects to run THE 3RD-MOST plays this week, and Hill himself is projected for 8.5 targets, placing him in the 92ND PERCENTILE for wide receiver volume. Combine this with the Rams' linebackers ranking as THE 2ND-WORST unit in coverage, and the matchup tilts entirely in Hill’s favor. SO, with favorable weather and a defense that has been DESTROYED by WR1s in similar spots, Hill’s projection isn’t just achievable—it’s a LOCK.

#4

👇 D. Achane: O 39.5 rec yards

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De’Von Achane is redefining the role of a pass-catching running back, and this projection doesn’t come close to reflecting his dominance. Achane leads all RBs with a 16.9% TARGET SHARE, placing him in the 99TH PERCENTILE for receiving involvement. His efficiency is unmatched, compiling 7.78 adjusted yards per target (1ST AMONG RBs) while catching 93% of his passes this season. BUT the Rams’ defense is tailor-made to elevate Achane’s output—they allow THE MOST adjusted yards per target (8.49) and THE HIGHEST adjusted completion rate (94.1%) to running backs this year.

The matchup dynamics further tilt in Achane’s favor. The Rams have allowed THE 5TH-MOST yards after the catch to RBs, and Achane ranks among the league’s best in creating YAC. Miami’s pace of play also ensures volume, as they run THE 3RD-MOST plays per game. SO, with his role locked in and the Rams providing a dream matchup, this number feels like a FREE SQUARE.

#3

👇 K. Williams: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Kyren Williams operates in a workload stratosphere all his own, handling 84.2% of the Rams’ backfield touches—THE HIGHEST RATE IN THE NFL. This dominance in opportunities directly translates to red-zone usage, where he leads all running backs in touches per game. BUT it’s the matchup that solidifies this pick. Miami has allowed THE 2ND-MOST touchdowns to RBs this season, with 42.2% of their defensive points allowed coming from the backfield (31ST IN THE NFL).

As a home favorite with an implied team total of 26.5 points, the game script heavily favors scoring opportunities for Williams. Miami’s defense also ranks 24TH in run success rate allowed and surrenders 4.59 yards per carry (22ND). With the Rams’ reliance on Williams in all high-leverage situations, his odds of finding the end zone are OBVIOUSLY HIGH. SO, this is as AUTOMATIC as it gets.

#2

👇 J. Smith: 2.5 rec

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Jonnu Smith has quietly become one of the most reliable tight ends in the NFL, averaging 3.7 receptions per game (85TH PERCENTILE) while improving his catch rate to 76.3% this season. The matchup this week makes his case even stronger. The Rams have allowed THE 2ND-WORST adjusted yards per target (9.5) to tight ends and THE 5TH-MOST yards after catch to the position. BUT what solidifies Jonnu’s value is his recent usage—he’s run a route on over 80% of dropbacks in each of his last three games, marking a significant increase in his role.

Miami’s fast pace of play, THE 6TH-FASTEST IN THE NFL, creates additional opportunities for Smith in a game where his matchup is highly favorable. SO, with consistent volume and the Rams’ well-documented struggles against TEs, this projection is WAY-TOO-LOW.

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