WAS @ KC

Monday Night Football is here. Chiefs vs. Commanders brings Mahomes, fireworks, and hidden value, here are the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#6 - M. Mariota: O 28.5 Rush Yards

Mariota has averaged 31.3 rushing yards over his last three appearances, giving him a built-in floor from designed keepers and scrambles. But Kansas City’s seventh-highest pressure rate and ninth-highest blitz rate force quarterbacks to move, creating rush yards when the pocket collapses early. They have also allowed the sixth-most quarterback rushing yards this season, and mobile passers have repeatedly found space when the rush wins quickly. Washington’s quarterback run game has already produced starter-level outcomes this season, including QB6 and QB16 performances in prior Mariota starts driven heavily by his legs. So with a defense that invites scrambles and a quarterback consistently living around the 30-yard mark, 28.5 is a low projection for his rushing role.

#5 - T. Kelce: O 3.5 Receptions

Kelce remains central to Kansas City’s passing script, clearing 3.5 receptions in five of his last seven games while running a route on 72.5 percent of dropbacks with the starters. But Washington has been a tight end funnel, allowing the third-worst yards per target and a 26th-ranked 80 percent catch rate to the position, which turns short targets into easy chains. Even with Rashee Rice active, Kansas City’s passing efficiency has climbed, and Kelce’s last month includes four of his five highest yardage totals, signaling stable usage. The matchup rewards rhythm throws and underneath separation that pad reception totals rather than deep, volatile shots. So between tight end efficiency allowed and Kelce’s steady routes, 3.5 receptions profiles as a low, easily clearable number.

#4 - R. Rice: O 0.5 Total Touchdowns

Rice stepped back into alpha-level efficiency last week, earning targets on 31.3 percent of routes over his last 10 games and drawing looks on over half of his routes with Patrick Mahomes on the field. But the alignment edge is the key: he played 43 percent of snaps in the slot, and Washington allows the most yards per target to slot receivers, forming a slot-funnel defensive profile that concedes explosive gains. The Commanders also allow the sixth-most wide receiver touchdowns, pairing volume zones with red-zone payoff in the same matchup. Kansas City’s plan features Rice as the primary underneath separator, exactly where Washington’s spacing creates open throwing windows. So with usage plus slot leverage against a defense that consistently concedes receiver scores, Rice has a high-probability scoring path to clear 0.5 touchdowns.

#3 - T. McLaurin: O 34.5 Receiving Yards

When active, McLaurin commands a team-high 38.1 percent of Washington’s air yards, creating true wide receiver one leverage. But Washington enters as an 11.5-point underdog, a game script that historically drives pass-heavy second halves and consolidates targets to the top option. Before the injury pause, he cleared this number in two of his last three games, including a 74-yard performance that matches his usage and depth. Returning to clear wide receiver one status tightens the read tree and keeps him featured on intermediate routes that steadily stack yards. So with negative script and concentrated air-yard share pointing the same direction, 34.5 is a modest, volume-friendly projection.

#2 - H. Butker: O 1.5 FG

Kansas City carries the second-highest team total on the slate, signaling repeated entries into scoring range. But Washington has allowed the third-most made field goals this season, a tendency that turns strong drives into multiple kicking chances rather than touchdowns. Butker’s role already trends above the mark at 2.1 field goal attempts per game, matching how the Chiefs control pace and territory. In a projected controlled game flow, drives stack and attempts follow. So with team environment and opponent tendencies aligned, two makes sit well within the baseline outcome for Butker.

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That’s the list. Chiefs–Commanders could turn into a shootout, lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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