TB @ HOU

Football rolls into Monday night with Tampa and Houston. I’ve locked in my best edge for Bucs–Texans… in two minutes or less.

#5 - B. Mayfield: U 4.5 Rush Attempts

Mayfield ran the ball five times in Week 1, but that was more about game chaos than a sustainable trend. He was pressured on a massive 40.5% of dropbacks, one of the WORST marks in the league, and those scrambles were desperation moves to avoid sacks against a defense that doesn’t normally pressure.

Now he faces a Texans front that posted the 8TH-HIGHEST pressure rate in Week 1, and historically, they don’t give quarterbacks room to run, allowing the 7TH-FEWEST QB rush attempts last season. Combine that with Mayfield’s track record as he averaged just 3.5 carries per game in 2024, and it’s clear that five rushes last week was the outlier, not the norm. In a road game where Tampa has only a 20-POINT implied total and will struggle to extend drives, the most likely outcome is Mayfield staying in the pocket and taking hits instead of picking up free yards on the ground. LESS THAN 4.5 rush attempts is the sharp side.

#4 - M. Evans: U 89.5 Receiving Yards

Evans was the clear WR1 in Week 1, commanding a strong 25% target share, but he still finished with only 51 yards. That inefficiency comes back to Mayfield’s style as he pushed the ball downfield on 47% of his throws (3RD-HIGHEST in the NFL) but completed just 53.1% of passes, the 29TH-ranked rate.

Now he runs into a Texans defense that has been one of the BEST in football at defending outside receivers. Houston allowed the 8TH-FEWEST receptions to WRs last season, and they picked up right where they left off in Week 1, holding Atlanta’s wideouts to just 5.2 yards per target (5TH-BEST). This isn’t about Evans’ talent as he’ll always command looks, but about efficiency in a matchup where Houston excels at cutting off his bread-and-butter downfield routes. Even if he sees volume, the yards after catch won’t be there, and with Tampa carrying only a 20-POINT implied total, Evans hitting 90+ yards feels like a massive stretch. LESS THAN 89.5 is the play.

#3 - S. Shepard: O 19.5 Receiving Yards

Shepard’s role was quietly stronger than the box score showed. He logged a route on 73% of dropbacks and matched rookie Emeka Egbuka with six targets, turning them into 39 yards which is already double the projection we’re playing today.

The real edge is where he lines up. Shepard played 51% of his snaps from the slot, the exact spot where Houston has been exposed. The Texans allowed 119 yards from the slot in Week 1, and last year they gave up a LEAGUE-HIGH 10.9% touchdown rate to slot receivers. Tampa also throws the ball at the 16TH-HIGHEST rate, keeping Shepard locked into three-WR sets and ensuring steady opportunity. With Chris Godwin still banged up and Shepard trusted as the veteran safety valve, 20 yards is simply too low. In a matchup that directly aligns with his role, Shepard is set up to CRUSH this number. MORE THAN 19.5 is the easy call.

#2 - N. Chubb: O 10.5 Rush Attempts

Chubb is the definition of locked-in volume. He handled 56.5% of Houston’s backfield touches in Week 1, out-snapping every other RB and logging 13 carries even in a game script where the Texans trailed. That shows his role is independent of score and that he owns the early downs no matter what.

What makes this even stronger is the Texans’ offensive structure. They used 11 personnel on a LEAGUE-HIGH 80% of snaps, which forced the Rams into light boxes on 52% of Chubb’s carries. He’s not efficient anymore, but this setup guarantees attempts. Tampa Bay’s defense was strong last week with a 77% run-stop success rate, but they also allowed 71 total plays (28TH in opponent plays), which means if Houston sustains drives, Chubb will have the chances. With a tight 2.5-point spread projecting neutral game flow, Chubb clearing 10.5 rush attempts is OBVIOUS. This pick isn’t about efficiency, it’s about locked-in usage, and the volume is there.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One or two market mistakes will decide Bucs–Texans—grab them now and own Monday night.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe