TB @ DET

The lights are on in Detroit. Buccaneers vs. Lions headline Monday night, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#6 - A. St. Brown: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

St. Brown’s role is bankable volume that attacks Tampa’s exact soft spots. He’s handled ≥30% of team targets in 4 of the last 5 (low of 28%), and the Bucs bring the 6TH-HIGHEST blitz rate. But when Goff is blitzed, St. Brown owns a 35.1% target share and elite per-route efficiency, and Tampa has been gashed by play action, allowing the 3RD-MOST yards per attempt and a top-tier TD rate on those throws. St. Brown also leads Detroit in play-action targets (29.4%) and per-route output. So paired with a defense that ranks 7TH-MOST in points allowed to WR1s and has given up recent spike weeks to top receivers, this projection is positioned to get crushed in a high-scoring environment.

#5 - J. Gibbs: O 14.5 Receiving Yards

Tampa is stout vs the run but leaky vs RBs through the air. Bucs allow the 3RD-MOST RB receiving yards and the 5TH-MOST RB receptions, while ranking TOP-5 in run-defense success rate, which forces targets to the backfield. But that same structure translates into fantasy juice, with RBs generating the 3RD-WORST (29TH) receiving points per game against them, and Detroit’s offense already thrives with play-action looks that create natural outlets. So Gibbs’ path is clean and repeatable, designed touches in space against a defense that bleeds to RBs through the air, making 15+ a way-too-low projection.

#4 - D. Montgomery: O 0.5 Receptions

The exact same Tampa pressure point benefits Monty, even on light usage. The Bucs have allowed the 3RD-MOST RB receiving yards and 5TH-MOST RB receptions, while sitting TOP-3 in run-defense success, which naturally boosts checkdowns and screens. But after a season-low touch game, Dan Campbell emphasized getting Montgomery more involved, and Detroit carries premium scoring context that raises play volume and red-zone snaps. So this is a one-play cash built on matchup tendencies. One designed flare or pressure outlet is all it takes against a defense that funnels targets to backs.

#3 - S. LaPorta: O 3.5 Receptions

All signs point to high-percentage volume for LaPorta. Tampa allows an 82.5% catch rate to TEs (4TH-HIGHEST) and a TOP-10 TD rate (10%), and they’ve been destroyed by play action across the board, yielding the 3RD-MOST yards per attempt. But LaPorta is perfectly aligned to exploit that. He’s 2ND on Detroit in play-action target share (17.6%) with elite yards per route on those snaps, and Detroit’s attack regularly layers PA to stress linebackers. So the pathway to 4+ catches is straightforward: blitz-driven pressure begets hot reads, PA creates voids, and LaPorta’s role is the exact answer to both.

#2 - J. Bates: O 5.5 Kicking Points

This is a premium opportunity bet. Detroit owns the HIGHEST implied team total of the entire slate (29.25), ranks 2ND-MOST in points per game, and plays in one of the week’s TOP-3 combined totals, a recipe for frequent scoring trips. But Tampa’s defense plays bend-don’t-break. They’re allowing the 30TH-RANKED yards per play on early downs, which sustains drives but increases the odds of field-goal stalls rather than automatic TDs. So multiple attempts for Bates are firmly in play in a fast, high-volume environment, making 6+ a high-confidence path to clear.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Monday night in Detroit means fireworks—hit these numbers before they’re gone.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. You can get $100 after playing just $5 on UNDERDOG if you sign up using code HOLKA9