PHI @ LAC

Monday Night Football is here. Eagles vs. Chargers brings two elite offenses, but this matchup might be trickier than people think… in two minutes or less

#5 - J. Hurts: U 1.5 Pass TDs

Hurts has struggled to find rhythm through the air lately, and this matchup is built to make that even worse.

• Chargers play two-high coverage on 57.7% of snaps (2ND-MOST) eliminating the deep balls Hurts throws at the 2ND-HIGHEST rate in the league
• Against zone defenses, Hurts owns just a 2.4% touchdown rate (16TH) with the 20TH-ranked yards per attempt, while the Chargers allow the 5TH-FEWEST yards per pass
• No quarterback has thrown more than 2 touchdowns on this defense all season; only two have even thrown one

It’s his lowest implied team total of the year, and this coverage shell kills his strength. The path to two passing TDs just isn’t there.

#4 - J. Herbert: U 1.5 Pass TDs

Herbert’s hand injury and static offense make this one of his toughest setups of the season.

• Took 94.7% of snaps from shotgun with just a 10% play-action rate (LOWEST of season), eliminating his best weapon against defenses like this
• The Eagles allow 9.4 YPA (3RD-MOST) and a 6.7% TD rate (4TH-HIGHEST) on play-action, but only 5.7 YPA (BEST) and a 1.6% TD rate (LOWEST) without it
• Since Joe Alt’s injury, Herbert has finished outside the Top-12 QBs in five straight and the Eagles rank 8TH-FEWEST in passing points allowed

Without play-action or mobility, he’s a stationary passer versus a top-tier anti-shotgun defense. Two touchdowns feel out of reach. The #1 pick for this slate faces a defense just as disciplined against top receiving options, and it’s not giving up much through the air either.

#3 - A. Brown: U 89.5 Rec Yds

Brown’s been dominant all month, but this defense perfectly cancels out what he does best.

• Chargers have allowed the 10TH-FEWEST points to WR1s and just one 100-yard game to any wideout this year
• They give up only 7.8 yards per target (10TH-BEST) and a 3.1% touchdown rate (5TH-BEST) on WR1 looks
• Hurts has completed just 69.3% of passes (17TH) with a 2.4% TD rate (16TH) vs zone, and the Chargers run it on nearly 60% of snaps

Volume won’t save him here; this is a suffocating zone defense that erases WR1 ceilings.

#2 - L. McConkey: U 5.5 Rec

McConkey’s been reliable, but everything about this matchup caps his reception ceiling.

• Hasn’t topped 4 catches since Week 8, the last time Joe Alt played a full game; usage has fallen to 20.8% target share (WR31) since
• Eagles allow the 2ND-LOWEST catch rate (55.6%) and 2ND-FEWEST yards per target (5.5) to slot receivers, where McConkey runs 62% of routes
• Herbert’s hand injury and shotgun-only setup eliminate the quick, timing routes that feed slot targets

Philly’s interior coverage and Herbert’s limitations create the perfect storm, making it hard to see him reaching six receptions.

My #1 Pick for Eagles vs Chargers

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That’s the list. Lock it in and enjoy Monday night football

-Joe

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