PHI @ GB

Monday Night Football is here. Eagles vs. Packers brings two NFC powerhouses head-to-head, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#5 - J. Hurts: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Hurts is back in peak rhythm, with multiple pass TDs in five of his last six and seven over his last two, which is exactly the type of heater we want behind this projection. Philly leaned into under-center, motion, and play-action before the bye, and when Hurts throws off play-action he’s top five in passer rating (130.1) with 75.6 percent completions and 8.5 yards per attempt, a profile that crushes red-zone efficiency.

But the Packers have looked airtight on paper against play-action, allowing the league-best yards per attempt with the second-lowest touchdown rate, and still allowed multiple pass TDs in four of their last five, which exposes a recent-form leak. That matters because the Eagles’ motion rates spiked to 55 percent or higher in each of those final two games, creating easy throws where Hurts already grades as elite, and they kept that wrinkle precisely because it unlocks their intermediate shot game. He’s been a QB1 in seven of eight without needing short-yardage rushing scores, which keeps the touchdown path squarely through the air. So pairing Hurts’ hot streak with Philly’s play-action-heavy approach against a defense trending toward multi-TD allows makes more than 1.5 feel obvious for this contest.

#4 - A.J. Brown: O 0.5 Total Touchdowns

Brown’s role is undeniable: 29.9 percent of team targets over his last six with a two-score eruption his last time out, the exact usage that destroys a one-touchdown projection. The matchup tilts his way because Green Bay plays zone on 74.8 percent of snaps, where they look solid by yards, but versus WR1s they allow an 8.2 percent touchdown rate (28th) and have given up multiple receiving TDs in four of their last five, which is the crack we exploit.

Brown’s volatility versus man versus zone (targeted on 36.8 percent of routes versus man and 18.1 percent versus zone) can swing yardage, yet Philly’s recent motion and play-action emphasis simplifies reads and feeds the alpha in scoring areas. He already showed ceiling shape with four for 121 yards and two touchdowns in Week 7, then took a precautionary hamstring week before the bye, giving him a reset window that aligns with this scoring vulnerability. With the Eagles leaning into concepts that funnel high-leverage looks, Brown’s red-zone path is clean even if total yardage swings. So against a defense that ranks strong by yardage but leaks WR1 touchdowns, more than 0.5 for Brown reads like a lock.

#3 - D. Smith: O 34.5 Receiving Yards

Smith’s form is red hot, averaging 107.5 receiving yards per game over his last four, which is triple this projection and a clear sign the number is way too low. He leads Philly in yards per route run (2.28) and is nearly even with Brown in target rate per route (21.3 percent), proving he’s a 1B, not a WR2, when the offense gets rolling.

But the Packers are disciplined against top options by yards, ranking top ten in fewest yards per target to WR1s. The key is coverage fit, because Green Bay lives in Cover 3 (37 percent) and Smith leads the team at 2.39 yards per route run versus Cover 3, which is where his route craft hits hardest. His usage is steady across shells, targeted on 23.2 percent of routes versus man and 20.8 percent versus zone, keeping the floor intact even if Brown spikes. Add that he’s been WR2 or better in four of his last six, and the consistency plus schematic edge makes this less about boom weeks and more about baseline separation. So with Philly’s passing identity streamlined and Smith dominating Cover 3 looks, more than 34.5 profiles as the cleanest yardage edge on the board.

#2 - D. Goedert: O 19.5 Receiving Yards

Goedert’s role is built for bankable production, with a career-high seven touchdowns and a 30.4 percent red-zone target share (third highest among tight ends). He’s averaged 6.5 targets per game over his last four, which reliably clears a small yardage projection. Green Bay’s coverage on tight ends is tricky. They allow the fourth-highest target share to tight ends (26.5 percent) but clamp efficiency with the second-best yards per target while still giving a 20th-ranked touchdown rate (6.9 percent), a split that mirrors how Philly deploys him.

That means short-area volume with play-action leaks and red-zone scheming can pile up quick catches even in a modest-yardage script, especially when the defense naturally funnels inside. His 41.6 percent of fantasy points from touchdowns confirms the scoring emphasis, yet the recent target flow keeps the yardage floor stable regardless of end-zone outcomes. And with the Eagles leaning into under-center and play-action, he’s frequently the first read on quick-hitters that flip into chain-moving gains. So with both usage and funnel working in tandem, more than 19.5 is an easily attainable number for a featured tight end in this matchup.

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That’s the list. Eagles vs. Packers under the lights at Lambeau. Lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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