NYJ @ MIA

The lights are on for an AFC East showdown. Jets vs. Dolphins is packed with speed and soft numbers to attack… in two minutes or less.

#5 - G. Wilson: O 65.5 Receiving Yards

Wilson has one of the most dominant roles of any receiver in football, owning a massive 39% target share, the 2nd-highest in the league, BUT the matchup makes his workload even more dangerous. Miami’s defense is bottom of the barrel against wideouts, allowing the highest catch rate in the NFL at 76.9% and giving up points at one of the worst per-target rates. That weakness has already led to multiple top 5 WR finishes in just three weeks.

Wilson also accounts for nearly half (49.9%) of New York’s air yards, ranking top 10 in the league, which means every throw in this offense flows through him. And here’s the kicker: the Dolphins blitz at the highest rate in football but generate the lowest pressure, leaving receivers wide open when QBs aren’t hurried. Wilson just came off a 10-catch, 84-yard game with a touchdown, proving his role is quarterback-proof whether it’s Tyrod Taylor or Fields under center. With volume locked, defensive coverage this soft, and Miami’s scheme failing to stop anyone, clearing 65.5 feels like one of the most obvious plays on the board.

#4 - J. Waddle: O 47.5 Receiving Yards

Waddle has been capped under 6 targets in every game this season, BUT this matchup is set up perfectly for him to smash through that ceiling. The Jets have been burned by secondary receivers all year as Calvin Austin, Emeka Egbuka, and Sterling Shepard all cleared 70+ yards against them and those aren’t even elite players. Sauce Gardner usually tracks opposing WR1s which means Tyreek Hill draws the toughest assignment.

That leaves Waddle in the softer matchup against Brandon Stephens and Michael Carter, both ranking outside the top 75 in coverage. Even with limited looks, Waddle has already scored in back-to-back games, showing his efficiency is climbing compared to last season. The Dolphins know this is where the Jets are most vulnerable, away from Gardner’s shadow. This is the exact kind of game where Waddle sees a season-high in targets and converts it into volume. With the Jets struggling to contain WR2s week after week, 47.5 is simply too low for a player with his explosiveness and matchup edge.

#3 - T. Tagovailoa: O 227.5 Passing Yards

Tua has opened the season averaging under 200 yards per game, BUT the Jets’ defense has been just as much of a liability as Miami’s. New York ranks 26th in passing points allowed per attempt and sits 29th in pressure rate, failing to collapse the pocket even when blitzing. That lack of pressure is critical because when Tua has time, he picks apart secondaries, and this defense has already allowed Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield to post top 10 QB weeks.

Miami throws at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, and with 11 days of rest going into Monday Night, the Dolphins will lean into their passing identity. Both defenses are ranked bottom 5 in efficiency and have already allowed multiple explosive plays, creating one of the highest-upside environments of the week. Even though Tua has been shaky in spots, this is the exact defense that quarterbacks rebound against. With a clean pocket and elite weapons at his disposal, 227.5 is way too low, and this is the spot where Tua resets his season.

#2 - B. Hall: O 39.5 Rushing Yards

Hall has just 50 rushing yards combined over his last two games, BUT Miami’s run defense offers the perfect bounce-back opportunity. The Dolphins are giving up 4.5 yards per carry to running backs, ranking 21st, and also sit 25th in success rate allowed on the ground, meaning backs are consistently gaining chunk yardage. Miami has also been a bottom 10 unit in receiving points allowed to RBs, which keeps Hall involved no matter the script.

Yes, Braelon Allen mixed in last week, BUT Hall still handled the majority of backfield touches and remains the lead option. With Miami ranked dead last in defensive EPA and allowing opponents to score on 68% of drives, efficiency against this defense has been essentially free for every backfield they’ve faced. While Hall’s workload dipped recently, all it takes is one crease against this soft front for him to soar past 39.5. Given how exploitable Miami has been on the ground, this projection looks like one of the softest numbers of the entire week.

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That’s the list. One or two market mistakes will decide this AFC East clash—grab them now.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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