NYG @ NE

Monday Night Football is here. Giants vs. Patriots may not be flashy, but the matchup data shows a few numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less

#5 - T. Henderson: O 9.5 Longest Rush

Henderson still led this backfield with a 72% touch share last week, showing he remains the engine of this offense even with Stevenson and Jennings active. But here’s the key: the Giants allow the most yards per carry (6.2) and the most yards before contact (2.23) to running backs this season, both the worst marks in the league. Defenses that open lanes that early give explosive backs like Henderson free runway to hit double-digit gains fast, and just last week Jahmyr Gibbs ripped runs of 49 and 69 yards on this same unit, proving how one crease turns into a house call.

Henderson has averaged only 0.57 yards before contact behind a battered line, but this matchup flips that weakness into a strength because the Giants’ front has been collapsing early and losing gap discipline. That is exactly where Henderson thrives, cutting through light boxes with burst and balance. So even if goal-line work rotates, this projection hinges on one chunk run, and against the worst run defense in football, that single touch to clear 9.5 feels inevitable.

#4 - D. Maye: O 29.5 Longest Completion

Maye has quietly been one of the NFL’s most efficient deep throwers, completing a league-high 63% of passes 10+ yards downfield compared to a 48% league average. But the Giants’ secondary has been a disaster on those same plays, allowing the 29th-ranked completion rate (52.2%) and giving up explosive gains in bunches. Their coverage style only makes it worse, since they play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and that is exactly where Maye excels, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt (second-best) against man looks.

The Giants also generate pressure on just 33.3% of dropbacks (23rd overall), meaning Maye gets the clean pocket he needs to let routes develop, and now they have fired their defensive coordinator after another collapse, forcing coverage changes with minimal prep time. That combination of elite accuracy, soft man coverage, and a defense in flux sets up perfectly for one vertical shot to land. So this number is just too low, and with even one clean pocket and a deep route on schedule, he can clear 29.5 on a single throw.

#3 - S. Diggs: O 4.5 Targets

Diggs’ usage has been unpredictable week to week, but the volume trend still speaks for itself, as he has averaged 7.3 targets per game over his last three even with a dip in route share. But this matchup demands the ball go his way. The Giants allow the eighth-most targets to wideouts and lean on man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, which is exactly where Diggs thrives, earning a 27.6% target share and 2.59 yards per route run against man.

He remains one of the league’s top per-route producers at 2.24 yards per route run (12th) with a 24.8% target rate (18th), and when his routes climb back toward his usual usage, the targets follow quickly. With the Giants ranking near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to WR1s and sticking with a coverage style he dominates, this is a spot where volume should correct back in his favor. So five targets is not a ceiling outcome; it looks more like his floor in this matchup, making this projection feel too low.

#2 - T. Tracy: U 59.5 Rush Yards

Tracy has been a workhorse the last two weeks with 23 touches in back-to-back games, showing he can handle feature-back volume in this offense. But this matchup is brutal for ground production. The Patriots allow the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs (63.0) and rank second-best in yards per carry allowed (3.6), a combination that kills efficiency and limits chunk plays before they even start.

On top of that, New England’s defense naturally pulls usage away from the run by allowing the third-most receptions to running backs, encouraging offenses to attack them through the air instead of pounding into a wall. Tracy’s recent yardage spikes came against Green Bay and Detroit, good defenses but not on this level as run stoppers, and now quarterback Dart is back in the lineup and can steal designed carries. So even if the touches stay respectable, this is the league’s toughest run defense and one that funnels plays away from the ground, making 60 rushing yards a number he is unlikely to reach.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Giants vs. Patriots might be a grind, but the edge is locking in these numbers before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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