MIN @ CHI

Monday Night Football is here. Vikings vs. Bears under the lights, and the market left some soft spots wide open. Here are my best picks… in two minutes or less.

#6 - T. Hockenson: O 34.5 Rec Yards

Hockenson immediately reclaimed a top 7 target share among tight ends (18.2%) after returning from ACL, and now Minnesota opens the season with Jordan Addison suspended and Jalen Nailor week to week. That leaves Justin Jefferson as the only proven wideout, funneling early season volume directly toward Hockenson.

But Chicago’s defense showed a unique split last season. They allowed the 31st most yards per target to TEs, bleeding production through yardage even while keeping touchdowns in check with the 8th lowest TD rate. That’s the exact setup where a player like Hockenson thrives, since he’s on the field for nearly 75% of Minnesota’s passing snaps and functions as a chain mover more than a pure scorer. So in a game where McCarthy will lean heavily on play action and quick throws, Hockenson’s path to 35 yards is obviously there. This number is simply too low.

#5 - J. McCarthy: O 2.5 Rush Attempts

Minnesota has spent the entire offseason building a system to insulate their rookie QB by adding Aaron Jones, trading for Jordan Mason, and revamping the offensive line while signaling a run heavy, play action attack. But with Jefferson missing the entire preseason and Addison suspended for Week 1, the Vikings don’t have the depth to run a full vertical passing script, forcing McCarthy into more boots, rollouts, and scrambles.

Chicago is the perfect defense to tilt him that direction. They gave up 7.9 yards per pass attempt (30th), but also ranked 3rd best in limiting passing TDs, meaning quarterbacks often had to bail on red zone throws and extend plays on the ground. The Bears also finished with a bottom 4 sack/turnover differential, constantly putting QBs in chaos situations. So between the system design, the thinned WR room, and a defense that forces yards without scores, asking McCarthy to run 3 times feels like the locked in way Minnesota survives opening night.

#4 - D. Moore: O 49.5 Rec Yards

Moore somehow caught a career high 98 passes in 2024 despite operating in one of the least efficient offenses in football, with his routes flattened into short screens and underneath targets. But now Ben Johnson takes over, and his system in Detroit consistently used slot movement and crossing concepts that directly fit Moore’s skill set. He averages 5.1 yards after the catch (7th best since 2020), a number that spikes when used creatively.

Caleb Williams struggled badly downfield as a rookie, completing just 27.5% of throws 20 plus yards (31st), which means this offense will have to be built on short area efficiency where Moore dominates. Moore also hasn’t finished lower than a WR3 in points per game since his rookie season, showing his floor is ironclad even in bad systems. So with volume already proven, a creative new play caller, and a QB who has no choice but to lean short, Moore clearing 50 yards is about as safe as it gets.

#3 - A. Jones: O 59.5 Total Yards

Jones is as reliable as it gets. He’s never finished below 5.0 yards per opportunity in any season across eight years in the league, and he handled 306 touches last season without losing efficiency. That kind of consistency makes him one of the most bankable backs in football.

But Chicago was the single softest matchup for RBs in 2024. They allowed the 31st most yards per carry, tied for the most rushing TDs allowed to backfields (18), and let RBs account for the highest share of fantasy points allowed of any defense. That combination highlights both volume and efficiency, exactly the spots where Jones has thrived for his entire career. Even if Mason siphons some short yardage snaps, Minnesota has no problem running Jones in space, and Chicago has already proven they can’t stop that phase. So with his career long efficiency colliding with the worst rush defense on the board, 60 total yards is a projection he clears comfortably.

#2 - A. Thielen: O 29.5 Rec Yards

Minnesota just traded for Thielen last week because they need him right away. With Addison suspended and the depth chart paper thin, he projects for immediate playing time. But this isn’t a desperate plug in. Thielen was still extremely efficient last year, posting 2.06 yards per route run, his best since 2018, while averaging over 61 yards per game across 10 contests.

He even ranked 12th in both receptions and yards over the final six weeks of the 2024 season, proving he can still produce when given opportunity. So with Minnesota desperate for a second option behind Jefferson and Hockenson, Thielen doesn’t need to replicate peak production. Just clearing 30 yards in an offense starved for veteran targets is the kind of obvious spot you capitalize on.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

MIN @ CHI First-Half Only

#5 - D. Moore: O 25.5 1H Rec Yards

Moore has been a consistent first-half producer, averaging 28.6 yards before halftime last season, which already clears this projection on his baseline performance alone. He’s not just catching balls and falling down either, he ranked in the 85th percentile in yards after the catch, averaging nearly six extra yards per reception, showing he can turn short targets into big gains instantly.

But the matchup tilts this even further in his favor. The Vikings’ defense allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards to wide receivers last season and forced QBs into the 4th-most attempts. Chicago’s pace only compounds that edge, with the Bears projected to run the 3rd-most plays of the week, one of the best setups on the slate for volume. So when you combine Moore’s steady first-half production, his ability to create yards after contact, and a defense that bleeds receiving yards, this number looks like a lock to clear early.

#4 - A. Thielen: O 1.5 1H Catches

Thielen is one of the most reliable targets in football, posting a 79.9% adjusted catch rate last season, ranking in the 95th percentile for efficiency. He also started games strong, averaging 2.6 first-half catches per game, which already clears this projection without any matchup boost.

But this week brings the perfect storm of volume and opportunity. The Vikings are expected to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense, and the game environment projects for the 3rd-most total plays of the week, creating plenty of targets to go around. On top of that, with Jordan Addison suspended, Thielen slides into the WR2 role, virtually locking him into consistent involvement from the opening whistle. And unlike a new receiver trying to build chemistry, Thielen already has two full offseasons of work with J.J. McCarthy, giving him the kind of trust and timing that matters early in games. So between his elite efficiency, proven first-half production, and an expanded role in a pass-heavy setup, two catches before halftime feels like one of the safest plays on the board.

#3 - C. Loveland: O 10.5 1H Rec Yards

Loveland’s projection is tiny, but his opportunity is not. Chicago hired Ben Johnson to lean into heavy two-tight-end sets, and Loveland is expected to be a featured part of that scheme right out of the gate.

But the real value comes from Minnesota’s defensive profile. Last season they forced opposing QBs into the 4th-most pass attempts in football, which means extra opportunities for every pass-catcher. And this wasn’t just empty volume, because the Vikings also surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards overall, one of the most exploitable matchups for tight ends and secondary targets. So when you put it together, a scheme designed to feature him, a defense that forces high passing volume, and a secondary that leaks yardage, all it takes is a single catch to beat this number. That’s why this projection feels way too soft and sets up as one of the most obvious overs of the slate.

#2 - J. Mason: O 9.5 1H Rush Yards

Mason was one of the most efficient backs in football last season, averaging 5.2 adjusted yards per carry, which ranked 5th-best among all RBs. He also carried a major share of the rushing workload, handling nearly 44% of his team’s carries, giving him the volume floor to matter even as the 1B in Minnesota’s rotation behind Aaron Jones.

But the matchup makes this pick pop. Chicago’s defense allowed the 5th-most rushing yards in the league last season, and they struggled repeatedly to slow down backfield tandems. Add in that this game projects for the 3rd-most total plays of the week, and Mason should see multiple touches in just the first two quarters. So with his efficiency, locked-in role, and a defense that bleeds yards on the ground, 10 rushing yards before halftime feels like a projection that he can crush on his first or second carry.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Monday night closes the week, and the fastest way to win is attacking the bad numbers in Vikings–Bears before everyone else does.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe