MIA @ PIT

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#5 - J. Waddle: O 34.5 Rec Yards

Waddle’s box scores haven’t popped, but his role remains elite, and this matchup finally unlocks it.

• Steelers allow the 2ND-MOST receiving yards to WRs, consistently leaking production to perimeter weapons
• Pittsburgh ranks 27TH against WR1 targets, struggling to contain primary reads
• Waddle owns a league-high 54.1% of Miami’s air yards with a 26.1% target share, giving him chunk-play access

With Miami likely forced to throw more as a road underdog, this number is way-too-low for a player with this usage.

#4 - D. Achane: U 20.5 Rush Att

Achane’s fantasy value comes from efficiency, not volume, and this projection assumes the opposite.

• He logged only 8 touches before exiting last week, showing Miami’s willingness to manage his workload
• Pittsburgh has limited multiple elite runners in recent games, capping raw carry totals
• Achane is heavily involved as a receiver, reducing the need for 20+ rush attempts to manufacture touches

Between game script as a road underdog and role-based usage, this is a workload ask that doesn’t fit reality. The #1 PICK ON THIS SLATE is another Miami player, but one whose value comes from scoring

#3 - A. Rodgers: O 189.5 Pass Yards

Rodgers’ season-long numbers lag, but the matchup and recent trend finally align.

• Miami ranks 23RD in passing points allowed per attempt, allowing steady efficiency
• Dolphins also sit 24TH in yards per pass attempt, opening the door for chunk gains
• Rodgers just threw for a season-high 284 yards, with his most 20+ yard completions of the year

With improved confidence and a defense that bleeds efficiency, this number sits in a very comfortable range.

#2 - D. Metcalf: O 29.5 Rec Yards

This is less about ceiling and more about how fragile the projection is.

• Metcalf just posted season highs in targets, catches, and yards, showing usage consolidation
• Miami allows elevated efficiency to WR1 targets, especially when volume concentrates
• The projection sits under 30 yards, leaving almost no margin for defensive error

Even modest involvement clears this number, making it obvious if last week’s role holds.

#1 - D. Waller: O 0.5 Total TDs

Waller’s value has always been score-driven, and this matchup rewards exactly that profile.

• Steelers have allowed the 4TH-most touchdowns to tight ends
• Pittsburgh carries a 7.3% touchdown rate allowed to TEs, among the weakest marks at the position
• 43.6% of Waller’s production comes via touchdowns, aligning perfectly with this scoring funnel

When a touchdown-dependent tight end meets a defense that bleeds TE scores, the path is clear for Waller to get home.

That’s the list. Monday night in Pittsburgh always gets physical, so lock in these edges early

-Joe

P.S. These picks stay free because of partners like ProphetX. I only work with platforms I actually use and trust. Code HOLKA = 20% match up to $100.