LAR @ ATL

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#5 - M. Stafford: O 270.5 Pass Yards

Stafford is playing at a peak level, and this matchup feeds directly into everything he’s done best all season.

• Crushed this number in 3 straight games, averaging 369 passing yards per game
• Falcons run Cover 3 on 47 percent of snaps, the second-highest rate in the NFL
• Stafford vs Cover 3: 8.9 yards per attempt (8th) with a 4.9 percent touchdown rate (3rd)

When scheme and recent form align this cleanly, this passing number sits too low.

#4 - K. Cousins: O 0.5 INTs

Cousins’ volume has quietly climbed, and that workload keeps colliding with a defense built to punish aggressive pass games.

• Thrown 3 interceptions over his last 3 games, showing recent turnover volatility
• Averaging 35.5 pass attempts per game over his last 4, with Atlanta fully leaning pass-heavy
• Rams rank 6th-most in interceptions while facing the 6th-most pass attempts per game (35.7)

With sustained volume against a takeaway-heavy defense, one interception isn’t a stretch, it’s the most likely outcome. My #1 pick is another Falcons player who might have an off day.

#3 - P. Nacua: O 108.5 Rec Yards

Nacua has fully taken over this passing game, and Atlanta’s coverage tendencies only widen the gap.

• Averaging 191 receiving yards per game over his last 3 games
• Falcons allow 9.2 yards per target to WR1s (27th) with a 7.9 percent touchdown rate (28th)
• Nacua vs Cover 3: 45.3 percent target rate, 4.79 yards per route run, 666 total yards

With alpha volume meeting his best coverage matchup, triple-digit yardage becomes the baseline.

#2 - D. London: O 5.5 Receptions

London’s efficiency dipped last week, but the usage never moved, and the matchup gives him an easy path back to volume.

• Commands 23.5 percent of team targets while running routes on 83.3 percent of dropbacks
• Rams allow the 7th-most receptions to wide receivers
• Los Angeles ranks 29th in points allowed to WR1 targets (17.0 per game)

With routes and targets locked in against a catch-friendly defense, six receptions is a volume-driven outcome.

#1 - B. Robinson: U 74.5 Rush Yards

Robinson’s explosiveness is real, but this defense consistently removes rushing ceilings, even for elite backs.

• Rams allow 3.9 yards per carry (7th) and the 7th-fewest rushing yards to running backs
• Rams give up the 3rd-fewest rushing points per game to backfields (10.2)
• Held Jahmyr Gibbs to 2.9 yards per carry and Christian McCaffrey to 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry

When even elite backs are forced to win through the air, this rushing number stays too high.

That’s the list. Rams vs. Falcons could turn into a shootout, so lock in these numbers before they move.

-Joe

P.S. These picks stay free because of partners like ProphetX. I only work with platforms I actually use and trust. Code HOLKA = 20% match up to $100.