LAC @ LV

Football closes the week in the AFC West. Chargers vs. Raiders is loaded with sneaky value, and I’ve locked in my best pick… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Herbert: O 256.5 Pass Yards

Justin Herbert reminded everyone in Week 1 why he’s one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football, shredding Kansas City for 318 YARDS AND 3 TOUCHDOWNS while averaging an elite 9.4 YARDS PER ATTEMPT. This wasn’t a balanced attack either. The Chargers threw the ball 14% OVER EXPECTATION overall and an even more aggressive 15% OVER EXPECTATION ON FIRST DOWNS, showing that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman are fully committed to letting Herbert run this offense. But the matchup sets up even better this week. The Raiders just faced a LEAGUE-HIGH 46 PASS ATTEMPTS in Week 1 and still profile as the LOWEST-RANKED SECONDARY from preseason evaluations. They already gave up 6.6 YARDS PER ATTEMPT TO MAHOMES, and that was against a Kansas City team still finding its rhythm.

So when you combine the HIGHEST WR TARGET RATE OF HERBERT’S CAREER (82.4%), the Chargers’ ranking as a TOP-5 OFFENSE IN YARDS PER PLAY (6.4), and their streak of 3+ POINTS PER DRIVE IN FOUR STRAIGHT GAMES, this projection looks far too soft. Herbert has consistently DESTROYED this matchup, including a 346-yard game the last time these teams met, and every trend points to him cruising past 256.5 again.

#4 - L. McConkey: O 69.5 Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey opened 2025 as Justin Herbert’s most trusted wideout, pulling a 26% TARGET SHARE and running routes on a TEAM-HIGH 92.7% OF DROPBACKS. That kind of usage is already elite, but the way he’s being deployed makes this pick even stronger. McConkey’s slot rate fell to 48% (down from 66% as a rookie), giving him far more opportunities outside where he averaged a dominant 3.0 YARDS PER ROUTE in Week 1. But the real signal comes from Herbert himself. He threw to his wide receivers on 82.4% OF PASSES, the HIGHEST RATE IN ANY GAME OF HIS CAREER, proving this offense is built to flow through its pass catchers.

So when you add the Raiders’ 2ND-HIGHEST OPPONENT PASS RATE ALLOWED (73.5%), this becomes a textbook pass-funnel matchup. The Chargers are also carrying a TOP-6 IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL (25.3 POINTS), creating multiple scoring and big-play chances. McConkey nearly connected on a walk-in deep touchdown last week, and in this environment, it’s only a matter of time before those near-misses turn into box score breakers. His volume, role shift, and matchup all align for him to CRUSH this number.

#3 - G. Smith: O 29.5 Pass Attempts

Geno Smith wasted no time proving he can elevate this Raiders offense, attempting 34 PASSES FOR 362 YARDS in Week 1 while hitting FOUR DEEP COMPLETIONS OF 20+ YARDS. The philosophy behind it is undeniable. Vegas ran a 72.7% NEUTRAL PASS RATE (2ND-HIGHEST IN THE NFL) and finished 8% over expectation, including a 14% OVER EXPECTATION RATE ON FIRST DOWNS. But despite generating 85.6% OF THEIR YARDAGE THROUGH THE AIR (HIGHEST RATE IN THE LEAGUE), the Raiders still managed only 20 points, which only reinforces that they need to keep leaning on Geno’s arm to move the ball.

So when you look at this matchup, the Chargers are another PASS-FUNNEL DEFENSE, allowing opponents to throw on 70.7% OF PLAYS (3RD-HIGHEST). Pair that with both teams ranking TOP-5 IN DROPBACK RATE OVER EXPECTATION, and you get a perfect storm for volume. The Raiders may not be the most efficient team drive-to-drive, but that actually works in our favor. It forces more attempts. Geno already showed he’ll push the ball downfield, and in a game that projects as one of the highest-volume passing environments of the week, 30+ attempts feels like a LOCK.

#2 - J. Meyers: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

Jakobi Meyers wasted no time clicking with Geno Smith, hauling in 8 OF 10 TARGETS FOR 97 YARDS in Week 1 while commanding a massive 30% TARGET SHARE (WR13 FOR THE WEEK). He didn’t just play a role. He played every role, running routes on 97.4% OF DROPBACKS, which ensures near full-time involvement regardless of personnel. But the real upgrade came in his alignment. Meyers lined up in the slot on 62% OF HIS SNAPS, nearly double last season’s rate, giving him cleaner matchups and higher-efficiency looks that Smith can hammer all game long.

So in a contest where the Raiders already rank as the 2ND-HIGHEST NEUTRAL PASS RATE OFFENSE and the Chargers force opponents to throw at the 3RD-HIGHEST RATE, this is an environment built for volume. And Meyers has already proven he can torch this exact opponent. The last time he faced the Chargers, he erupted for 9 CATCHES, 123 YARDS, AND A TOUCHDOWN. With Brock Bowers banged up and Geno producing first downs or touchdowns on a LEAGUE-HIGH 70.8% OF COMPLETIONS, the stage is set for Meyers to once again be the featured weapon. Clearing 57.5 yards here feels not just likely, but OBVIOUS.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. AFC West rivalry means big swings, and the edge is hitting the soft numbers now.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe