HOU @ SEA

Monday Night Football is here. Texans vs. Seahawks brings two young, exciting offenses, and I’ve found the numbers the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#6 - N. Collins: O 19.5 Longest Reception

Collins has quietly become the heartbeat of Houston’s passing game, owning 37.3% of the team’s air yards and ranking among the league’s most vertically used receivers. He’s been the consistent big-play threat that drives this offense, catching touchdowns in three of his last four games, and when the Texans find themselves in competitive scripts, he commands over 30% of team targets. But the matchup couldn’t be more favorable. Seattle ranks 29th in points allowed to opposing WR1s and has been shredded by deep threats for weeks. In their last three outings, Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas have all cleared 66+ yards, showing this secondary is leaking explosive plays. With C.J. Stroud’s passing efficiency climbing and the Texans projected to play from behind, Collins is positioned to hit this 19.5-yard projection on a single deep shot.

#5 - K. Walker III: U 14.5 Receiving Yards

Walker’s receiving floor is basically nonexistent. Seattle’s running backs have been targeted on a league-low 9.3% of passes, and Walker hasn’t cleared this number once in weeks. But this isn’t the defense to change that against. The Texans have allowed the third fewest RB receiving yards in the NFL, clamping down on check-downs and flat routes all season. With Zach Charbonnet now out-snapping and out-routing him consistently, Walker’s already limited passing involvement shrinks even further. Against a Houston defense that forces quarterbacks to attack outside instead of underneath, this projection feels far too high.

#4 - Z. Charbonnet: U 14.5 Receiving Yards

Charbonnet’s expanded snap count hasn’t led to results. Despite playing a season-high 60% of offensive snaps, he’s averaging only 2.9 yards per touch, the lowest mark in the NFL for any back with his workload. But Houston’s defense amplifies those issues. They’ve surrendered the third fewest RB receiving yards this season, keeping everything in front and rarely allowing yards after the catch. Seattle’s passing scheme compounds the problem, targeting running backs at the lowest rate in the league at 9.3%. Add in Houston’s top-five pressure rate, and Darnold will be throwing downfield, not sideways. There’s simply no path for Charbonnet to reach 15 receiving yards. This one feels dead on arrival.

#3 - W. Marks: O 1.5 Receptions

Marks is Houston’s clear passing-down back, and the coaching staff has doubled down on that label, calling him their primary passing-game option in this split. But Seattle’s defensive style is exactly what fuels RB reception volume. They bring pressure at one of the highest rates in football, which has forced opposing quarterbacks into constant dump-offs. As a result, Seattle has allowed the most RB receptions in the NFL this year. That’s a perfect storm for Marks’ skill set: short-area quickness, reliable hands, and designed usage in the flat. With the Texans likely playing from behind as road underdogs, Marks should easily clear 1.5 catches through pure game flow.

#2 - N. Chubb: O 1.5 Receptions

Chubb’s role is split evenly with Marks, but he still logged 11 touches and a touchdown in Week 5, evidence he’s far from a one-dimensional early-down runner. But the matchup makes this number too low to ignore. Seattle’s defense has allowed the most RB receptions in the league because their relentless pressure forces dump-offs. That dynamic creates opportunity for both Texans backs to contribute through the air. Even in a 50/50 snap split, Chubb benefits when Houston’s offense is hurried. He’s frequently the outlet option when blitzes collapse the pocket. With Seattle’s front swarming, Chubb should collect a couple of easy catches and cruise past this number.

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That’s the list. Lock it in and let Monday night cook.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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