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Aaron Rodgers’ recent usage profile has created one of the safest completion floors on the slate, and the matchup reinforces it.

• Cleared 20.5 completions in five straight games, including 31 completions last week, confirming sustained volume
• Houston allows the third-highest completion rate to quarterbacks on the season
• Rodgers owns the fastest time to throw in the NFL, with the highest rate of passes released within 2.5 seconds, directly countering Houston’s pressure

When elite quick-game volume meets a defense that bleeds completions, this number gets cleared on structure alone.

Kenneth Gainwell’s late-season role has quietly turned into an elite reception profile, and this matchup amplifies it.

• Averaging nearly seven targets per game over his last five games, with eight receptions last week
• Ranked second among all running backs in total receptions over the final eight games
• Houston allows the sixth-highest share of receptions to running backs, funneling throws to the backfield

When target volume and matchup funnel align this cleanly, six catches becomes the baseline outcome. My #1 pick is a different Steelers player who’s facing a tough matchup.

Nico Collins’ downfield role continues to generate explosive plays, and the defensive matchup makes it unavoidable.

• Recorded a 23-plus yard reception in six straight games, showing consistent big-play access
• Owns a top-10 air-yard share and averages 2.35 yards per route run
• Pittsburgh ranks bottom-third on completions allowed of 20-plus yards and gives up the fifth-most wide receiver yards

When a vertical WR1 faces a defense that struggles with explosive passes, one play clears this easily.

Dalton Schultz’s value is built on steady involvement, and this matchup pushes volume directly to tight ends.

• On the field for 77.5 percent of dropbacks with a top-six target share among tight ends
• Pittsburgh allows the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends
• Tight ends account for 23.9 percent of fantasy points allowed by Pittsburgh, the fourth-highest positional share

When a volume-based tight end faces a defense that bleeds catches to the position, five receptions is the expectation.

C.J. Stroud’s recent production defines his ceiling, and this matchup fails to create a spike environment.

• Averaging 203 passing yards over his last seven games
• When pressured, Stroud averages 6.0 yards per attempt with a 3.6 percent touchdown rate
• Pittsburgh pressure holds quarterbacks to 5.8 yards per attempt compared to 7.7 when kept clean

When pressure suppresses efficiency and no volume funnel exists, this passing number sits too high.