DET @ BAL

Monday Night Football is here. Lions vs. Ravens brings two elite offenses and plenty of hidden value. Here’s my best pick… in two minutes or less.

#6 - Z. Flowers: O 5.5 Receptions

Flowers isn’t just Baltimore’s WR1. He’s been their entire passing attack, commanding 47.4% of the team’s targets in Week 1 and 39.3% in Week 2, while clearing 50% of the air yards both times. That’s alpha usage you only see from elite receivers. Detroit plays MAN COVERAGE at the 9TH-HIGHEST RATE while blitzing at the 11TH-HIGHEST CLIP, yet they sit just 26TH in pressure rate. That’s the exact recipe Lamar needs to feed his first read, and Flowers has been targeted on 34.5% of his routes against man, turning those into 3.69 yards per route with elite efficiency. Expect another 7+ catch game, making this 5.5 number feel WAY TOO LOW.

#5 - S. LaPorta: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

LaPorta may have been quiet last week with just 26 yards, but his role didn’t shrink. He still ran routes as a full-time player. Baltimore has been a gold mine for tight ends, ranking 29TH in fantasy points allowed per target while giving up 16-of-17 completions to the position for 185 yards and a touchdown through two games. That’s not just volume, it’s efficiency, with tight ends carving them up for over 10 yards per target. LaPorta is positioned as the secondary option behind ARSB to soak up those middle-of-field looks, making 40 yards feel like an easy rebound spot against one of the WORST TE defenses in the league.

#4 - A. St. Brown: O 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

St. Brown just reminded everyone why he’s a fantasy superstar, scoring THREE TOUCHDOWNS last week while commanding 25.8% of Detroit’s targets. He wins consistently from the slot, lining up inside on 43.2% of his snaps, and this matchup plays right into that strength. Baltimore ranks 23RD in points allowed to slot WRs and gives up the 3RD-HIGHEST TOUCHDOWN RATE from that alignment at 14.3%. That’s exactly the coverage ARSB punishes, especially in the red zone where he just scored from 4, 8, and 4 yards out. If Detroit crosses the goal line, St. Brown is the most OBVIOUS bet to cash.

#3 - L. Jackson: O 6.5 Rush Attempts

Jackson has been on fire through the air, averaging 9.5 YARDS PER ATTEMPT and posting an absurd 18.2% TOUCHDOWN RATE when unpressured. That passing efficiency forces defenses to blitz, and Detroit brings the 11TH-HIGHEST BLITZ RATE in the NFL. But their rush hasn’t been effective, ranking just 26TH in pressure rate, which means those blitzes open escape lanes rather than collapsing the pocket. Combine that with Detroit’s 9TH-HIGHEST MAN COVERAGE RATE where defenders’ backs are turned, and Lamar has more room to scramble. Detroit is also allowing 1.57 yards before contact per carry (24TH), leaving rushing lanes wide open for designed runs. Expect Lamar to pile up scrambles and keepers, clearing 7 rush attempts with ease.

#2 - T. Loop: O 5.5 Kicking Points

C’mon. You already know this. No one hit more kicker picks than us last year, and we’re 5-0 this year. Loop is perfect on 4-of-4 field goals, including a 52-yarder, and he’s already scored 21 points in just two games. Arizona’s offense has given him 10 extra point attempts already, and this line should be higher. We’re riding with Loop to keep the streak alive.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Lions–Ravens could turn on a single play—lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA