DAL @ LV

The lights are on in Vegas. Cowboys vs. Raiders has shootout potential written all over it, and I’ve locked in the best edges… in two minutes or less

#6 - B. Bowers: O 8.5 Targets

Brock Bowers has one of the most reliable roles at tight end right now, pulling a 24% target rate (TE3) and showing top tier efficiency on every route he runs. Even in a quiet game last week, nothing about his usage changed, and just two weeks ago he posted a massive 13 target performance that shows how heavily this offense leans on him when they need movement in the passing game.

But Dallas is the exact type of matchup that boosts tight end volume because they allow the 10TH-MOST receptions to tight ends and have recently given up strong outings to Mason Taylor, Zach Ertz, and Trey McBride, which signals a clear trend of tight end friendly outcomes over their last several games. So with Bowers already operating as the go to option in this passing game and now facing a defense that consistently leaks tight end production, this number is simply WAY TOO LOW for a player with elite usage, proven ceiling, and a perfect matchup to stack more than 8.5 targets again.

#5 - J. Ferguson: U 36.5 Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson’s entire role depends on volume based yardage, but he is one of the least efficient tight ends in the league with only 6.9 yards per catch, the 3RD-LOWEST mark among all tight ends with at least 100 routes. When CeeDee Lamb is active, Ferguson’s usage becomes even more unreliable, and he has cleared this projection only once in his last four games, which fits directly with his low average depth of target and short area responsibility.

But the Raiders create one of the toughest matchups for tight end yardage because they allow the 6TH-FEWEST yards to the position and tight ends make up only 16.8% of all receptions against them, the 3RD-LOWEST share in the league, thanks to a scheme that funnels everything toward wide receivers. So with Dallas expected to lean heavily on Lamb and the perimeter options again and Ferguson needing unusual efficiency to get anywhere near this number, this projection is simply TOO HIGH, and the matchup sets up cleanly for less than 36.5 yards.

#4 - C. Lamb: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb has returned to one of the strongest usage profiles in the league, averaging 98.2 yards per game this season and stacking 110, 74, and 85 yards in his three games back, with target shares rising from 27% to 33% during that stretch. His efficiency has been elite across all alignments, and he remains a major problem for defenses because he continues to win both outside and in the slot with his WR1 level dominance.

But this matchup is especially strong because the Raiders allow the 9TH-MOST receiving yards to wideouts and get beat for 9.3 yards per target on the perimeter, which is the exact area where Lamb draws his best mismatches and generates the bulk of his explosive plays. So combining elite recent usage with one of the softest matchups he has seen all season, this projection becomes a clear WR1 advantage spot where Lamb should CRUSH more than 59.5 yards with room to spare.

#3 - G. Pickens: O 59.5 Receiving Yards

George Pickens has quietly been one of the most consistent receivers in the league over the last month, posting 82, 78, and 79 yards in his last three and averaging 91.8 yards per game across his last seven contests. He owns a 23.8% target share with strong efficiency, but his matchup specific numbers are even more impressive because he destroys Cover 3, and the Raiders run it at the 2ND-HIGHEST rate.

But the real separation factor is his usage against that coverage, he leads the team with a 31% target share and produces an elite 2.70 yards per route against Cover 3, pairing perfectly with a defense that allows a 53.3% completion rate on throws 10 plus yards downfield and 41.4% on throws 20 plus yards to receivers. So with Pickens playing 91% of his snaps on the perimeter and facing a secondary that struggles badly against deep perimeter production, this number is set WAY TOO LOW for the type of matchup where he usually explodes past 60 yards.

#2 - T. Lockett: O 2.5 Receptions

Tyler Lockett’s role remains steady even with younger receivers around him, as he ran a route on 80% of dropbacks last week and led the team with 6 targets, 5 catches, and 44 yards, showing he is still a primary read when this offense needs reliable separation. He played 65% of his snaps from the slot, which becomes the most important part of this matchup because Dallas has struggled badly against slot receivers, allowing 8.9 yards per target inside, one of the WORST marks in the league.

But Dallas also allows the 3RD-MOST receiving yards per game to wideouts, creating a strong environment for short, chain moving throws where Lockett excels and can rack up quick receptions. So with his route rate high, his slot usage in the best possible matchup, and his target reliability still intact, this projection sits far too low, making three catches feel like one of the clearest paths on the slate.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Monday night in Vegas always swings fast, hit these soft spots early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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