CAR @ SF

Carolina heads to San Francisco, and this matchup has value written all over it. I’ve dug through the numbers and found the edges the market missed… in two minutes or less

#5 - B. Purdy: O 229.5 Pass Yards

Brock Purdy reminded everyone why he is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league last week, hitting 73% completions, 3 touchdowns, and 7.7 yards per attempt in a balanced, mistake-free game. Across three starts this year, he has averaged 262 yards per game, ranking near the top of the league in efficiency while converting 68% of completions into first downs or touchdowns (4TH-HIGHEST in the NFL).

But this week’s defensive matchup looks tailor made for another explosion. Carolina ranks 25TH in pressure rate and 29TH in sack rate, giving quarterbacks all day to throw. Over the last two games, the Panthers have been torched for 10.4 yards per attempt, including 8.8 YPA between the numbers, where Shanahan’s offense feasts. With Purdy’s precision and rhythm passing against a defense that cannot generate heat, this projection is simply too low. Expect another 250 yard performance built on surgical efficiency.

#4 - G. Kittle: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

George Kittle’s resurgence with Purdy has been obvious, posting 6 receptions, 67 yards, and 2 touchdowns last week and lifting his average to 76 yards per game over his last two. The chemistry between these two is clear, with Kittle commanding a 27% target rate from Purdy and a 35.7% end zone target share dating back to last season. When both are healthy, that usage rivals any tight end in the league.

But Carolina’s defensive setup makes this week nearly unfair. The Panthers allow the MOST yards per target to tight ends (9.6), rank 30TH in fantasy points allowed per target, and give up a 77% catch rate to the position. They will be without linebackers Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom plus safety Lathan Ransom, which leaves the MIDDLE OF THE FIELD completely exposed. So with both volume and matchup working perfectly in sync, Kittle should carve up this defense again and easily clear 40 yards.

#3 - B. Young: O 179.5 Pass Yards

Bryce Young just broke out with a career best 448 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing over 68% of his passes and averaging 10.0 yards per attempt. It was Carolina’s highest passing output in over two seasons and came with a 70% dropback rate, the most aggressive game plan they have deployed since Week 2. When Young throws early in the downs, he is elite, posting 15.4 yards per attempt on first down passes last week alone.

But this is not a one off setup, it is another dream matchup. San Francisco ranks 2ND-MOST in passing yards allowed per game, and over the last nine weeks they have posted the LOWEST pressure rate (26.8%) and LOWEST sack rate (2.3%) in football. Six straight quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against them, and opposing passers are averaging 7.8 YPA with a 70% completion rate. So with no real pressure and a game script that should stay aggressive, Young should clear 180 yards with ease.

#2 - T. McMillan: O 44.5 Receiving Yards

Tetairoa McMillan owns one of the most elite usage profiles in football, ranking WR9 in TARGET SHARE (26.8%) and WR2 in AIR YARD SHARE (43.2%). In games where his quarterback has thrown 30 or more passes, he’s averaged 99 receiving yards and nearly double-digit targets. That kind of front-end usage paired with consistent efficiency is rare, and when Carolina leans pass heavy, McMillan becomes the focal point every single drive.

But this week’s matchup pushes his ceiling even higher. San Francisco has allowed the 3RD-MOST receiving yards per game to WRs (196.6) over the last seven weeks and ranks 26TH in touchdowns allowed to wideouts (1.3). Their corners are giving up chunk plays at one of the league’s highest rates, and Carolina projects for another TOP-5 dropback rate based on recent trends. So with elite volume meeting one of the softest coverage units in football, McMillan’s 44.5 projection feels like an easy clear.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Panthers vs. 49ers might look predictable, but the edge is grabbing the soft numbers before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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