BUF @ ATL

It’s Josh Allen vs. the Dirty Birds on Monday night. Expect fireworks—and I’ve got the best picks lined up… in two minutes or less

#6 - B. Robinson: O 15.5 Longest Rush

Bijan Robinson has been everything Atlanta hoped for and more. He’s leading the ENTIRE NFL in scrimmage yards per game (146.0) and has hit 70+ rushing yards in three straight. He’s not just productive; he’s efficient and violent at the second level, forcing five missed tackles in his last outing alone. But what makes this number stand out is how perfectly his skill set aligns with Buffalo’s biggest weakness. The Bills have allowed a run of 10+ yards on a league-high 20.6% of attempts and rank 31ST in explosive rushing yards allowed per game.

Bijan’s running style is tailor-made for this matchup. He leads all backs in outside zone usage (60.9%), and Buffalo has been gashed for 5.2 yards per carry on outside zone, ranking 27TH in that category. The Falcons’ scheme consistently gets him into space, and he’s faced the fewest 8-man boxes (18.8%) of any back with 30+ carries, meaning he’s often breaking runs against light defensive fronts. So when you combine elite contact balance, clean running lanes, and a defense missing key pieces like Matt Milano, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW. One crease, one misfit, and Bijan could hit 16+ on his first carry. This is a BIG PLAY LOCK.

#5 - D. London: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Drake London came out of the bye absolutely rolling. He’s fresh off an 8-catch, 110-yard, 1-TD performance, commanding a 35%+ target share whenever Darnell Mooney is off the field. But this is less about volume and more about how his skill set attacks the exact coverage Buffalo lives in. The Bills run Cover 2 on the 4TH-HIGHEST rate in the NFL, and London has quietly DESTROYED that look all season, targeted on 35% of his routes and averaging a blistering 3.90 YARDS PER ROUTE against it.

Buffalo’s defense is designed to limit deep passes but consistently gives up chunk plays to WR1s underneath. They rank 25TH in points allowed to WR1s, and receivers like Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers, and Stefon Diggs have all cracked them for big yardage. That’s where London thrives: intermediate space and in-breaking routes where he can bully zone defenders. With the Falcons coming out of the bye rested and Penix getting more comfortable, London projects as the clear focal point against a soft coverage structure. So with elite efficiency vs Cover 2, target dominance, and a defense that funnels production to WR1s, this 49.5 number feels like free money.

#4 - J. Allen: O 199.5 Passing Yards

Josh Allen has been surgical to start the season. QB1 in fantasy points per game, completing 70%+ in four of five games, and adding over 42 rushing yards per week for good measure. But the reason this projection stands out is how his passing profile directly punishes Atlanta’s system. The Falcons run Cover 3 at the 2ND-HIGHEST rate in football, and Allen has been borderline unstoppable against that look, completing 77% of passes for 9.2 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns and zero picks.

Atlanta’s defense may look stout on paper. They’re 3RD in passing points allowed per game, but that success came against a weak QB slate (Mayfield, McCarthy, Bryce Young, Mariota). When facing top-tier pocket passers, that high-pressure rate (39.5%) can’t hide their vulnerability deep and over the middle. And when Allen’s kept clean, he’s elite: 78.1% completions, 8.9 YPA (4TH-BEST), and a 127.2 passer rating (4TH). The Bills are top-3 in touchdown drive rate, top-6 in yards per play, and play at one of the fastest offensive tempos in football. So in a dome, with protection holding and Cover 3 looks giving him free rhythm throws, 199.5 yards is an insult to his ceiling. He could clear this number before halftime.

#3 - D. Kincaid: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Dalton Kincaid is quietly off to the best stretch of his young career. He’s leading all tight ends in YARDS PER ROUTE (2.63) and sits near the top in efficiency against the coverage Atlanta runs most. But what makes this projection so beatable is how the Falcons’ defensive structure inadvertently amplifies Kincaid’s role. They run Cover 3 on nearly 50% of defensive snaps (2ND-HIGHEST), and against that look, Kincaid has been Allen’s top read, commanding a 23.7% TARGET SHARE and averaging 3.29 YARDS PER ROUTE, both elite marks.

Even with limited snaps (59.9% route participation), his per-route dominance is elite. And while Atlanta’s raw numbers look strong (no touchdowns allowed to TEs, 3RD-FEWEST yards per target), that comes with context: they haven’t faced a TE remotely close to Kincaid’s caliber. Buffalo’s offense runs the ball more than any team (50%), forcing linebackers downhill and creating exactly the coverage voids Kincaid feasts on. So while others will shy away from a matchup that looks tough on paper, this one’s pure efficiency vs vulnerability. Kincaid doesn’t need volume to clear 29.5. One seam route or play-action leak and it’s EASY MONEY.

#2 - M. Prater: O 5.5 Kicking Points

This is the sneaky play of the slate. Buffalo ranks 3RD in touchdowns per drive (34%) and 7TH in offensive plays per game, meaning they live in opponent territory. But Atlanta has been a classic bend-don’t-break defense, holding teams to 21.5 PPG (15TH-FEWEST) and ranking 3RD in yards allowed per drive, forcing opponents to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. That defensive style pairs perfectly with a kicker like Prater, who benefits from sustained offensive drives that stall inside the 30.

The Bills have also outgained every opponent this season, moving the ball with consistency even in ugly games. Combine that with their top-3 scoring efficiency and Atlanta’s methodical, clock-controlling pace (5TH in plays per game), and this sets up as a volume-heavy kicking script. Every long drive that stalls in the red zone adds up, and this one has that exact pattern written all over it. So while everyone chases the highlight props, Prater’s 5.5 feels like a quiet lock, built on pure game script logic and data-backed red zone math.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One or two bad numbers will decide this one. Grab the edge now and enjoy Monday night.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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