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Top MLB Picks (5/29)

#5

👇B. Lowe: O 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Brandon Lowe has been on an ABSOLUTE TEAR—he’s SMASHED this projection in 7 STRAIGHT GAMES while BATTING .407 with 5 HOMERS. But the value here isn’t just form—it’s the setup. He’s locked into the 2-HOLE, which means MAXIMUM PLATE EXPOSURE in one of the MOST PRODUCTIVE RUN ENVIRONMENTS on the slate. Today’s weather ranks as the 3RD-BEST FOR HITTING across the league, combining ELITE TEMPERATURE and HUMIDITY conditions to boost power and contact. Lowe also has the platoon edge, stepping in from the left side against Ryan Gusto, a pitcher with a 4.58 ERA—offering exactly the kind of matchup this hot streak thrives on. So when you factor in ELITE FORM, a TOP-LINEUP SPOT, and THE 3RD-BEST WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THE DAY, this number feels WAY TOO LOW.

👇J. Wood: O 0.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

James Wood isn’t just trending—he’s DOMINATING. He’s CRUSHED this number in 9 OF HIS LAST 10 GAMES, averaging a MONSTER 2.9 TOTAL BASES per contest. But this pick isn’t just about volume—it’s about matchup control. He’s batting 2ND, which guarantees top-of-order opportunity, and more importantly, he’s rated as the #1 BABIP TALENT IN THE ENTIRE GAME by THE BAT X—legitimately the best pure hitter on the slate. He’ll step in from the left side against Emerson Hancock, and every reliever behind Hancock outside of one throws from the opposite side—meaning Wood keeps the PLATOON ADVANTAGE ALL GAME. Add in the 5TH-BEST HITTING WEATHER on today’s slate, and you’ve got a rising bat in a top-tier matchup with no bullpen risk. So with DOMINANT FORM, THE BEST BABIP EDGE, and FULL GAME LEVERAGE, this number feels like a GIFT.

#3

👇C. Alexander: U 1.5 Total Bases

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

CJ Alexander has yet to deliver a single hit to beat this number—he’s NEVER HIT THIS PROJECTION in his entire Major League career. But the warning signs go even deeper. He’s projected to bat 7TH in the order today, severely limiting his opportunities to even get multiple chances at the plate. More importantly, THE BAT X ranks him in the 4TH PERCENTILE for BATTING AVERAGE TALENT, one of the LOWEST SKILL GRADES on the slate. And while Rogers Centre is often thought of as a hitter’s park, it comes with the 8TH-HIGHEST FENCE HEIGHT in the league, which makes it TOUGHER TO CONVERT DEEP CONTACT. So with ZERO TRACK RECORD, BOTTOM-TIER HITTING TALENT, and a LOWERED CEILING from lineup position and ballpark dimensions, this number is WAY TOO HIGH.

#2

👇E. Clement: U 1.5 Total Bases

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Ernie Clement has been ICE COLD, failing to hit this number in 14 STRAIGHT GAMES. But this isn’t just a slump—it’s a ceiling issue. THE BAT X ranks him in the 13TH PERCENTILE for BARREL RATE, showing a clear LACK OF POWER, and he’s projected to hit 6TH today, a lineup spot that already cuts into volume. His matchup isn’t doing him any favors either—he’s facing Jacob Lopez, who comes in with a SHARP 2.57 ERA and has been one of the TOUGHEST PITCHERS on the slate for limiting damage. On top of that, Rogers Centre ranks 8TH-HIGHEST IN FENCE HEIGHT, which suppresses extra-base potential even when contact is made. So with a COLD BAT, NO POWER, a TOUGH ARM, and THE WRONG ENVIRONMENT, this number feels MILES TOO HIGH.

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