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Top MLB Picks (5/27)

#5

👇I. Paredes: O 0.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Isaac Paredes is locked into the 2ND SPOT in the lineup today, setting the stage for max opportunity right out of the gate. He gets the PLATOON ADVANTAGE against JP Sears, a key edge that should amplify his already lethal power profile. The real kicker is how perfectly Paredes matches up with Minute Maid Park—the 2ND-SHALLOWEST LEFT FIELD WALL in all of baseball sits exactly where his swing is designed to punish. Paredes ranks in the 100TH PERCENTILE in PULL RATE on flyballs, so every hard-hit ball to left has a high chance of turning into extra bases in this exact layout. BUT what takes this from good to elite—he’s CRUSHED this number in 7 OF HIS LAST 8 GAMES, averaging 3.5 TOTAL BASES during that stretch. So with elite form, park-specific advantages, and a top-2 lineup spot against a lefty, this projection feels like a GIFT.

👇L. Thomas: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Lane Thomas enters today’s matchup ICE COLD, with just ONE GAME clearing this number in his LAST 10—while batting an alarming .067 during that entire stretch. And the matchup offers no relief. He draws DODGERS RIGHTY DUSTIN MAY, who holds a MASSIVE PLATOON EDGE according to THE BAT, and that platoon split is labeled an OVER-SIZED MISMATCH. On top of that, Progressive Field is one of the worst parks to attack vertically—it’s home to the 4TH-TALLEST AVERAGE FENCE HEIGHT in the majors. Even worse, Thomas hits a large portion of his flyballs to CENTER FIELD, and today he’ll be aiming toward the 8TH-DEEPEST CENTER FIELD WALL in baseball. BUT the real concern is this—when you’re slotted lower in the order, ice-cold at the plate, and facing one of the worst lefty/righty mismatches of the day, there’s just not enough runway to get this done. So this projection is WAY TOO AMBITIOUS for the way this matchup stacks up.

#3

👇M. Semien: U 1.5 Total Bases

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Marcus Semien is in a major role downgrade today—he’s projected to hit 9TH in the batting order after spending 100% OF HIS SEASON hitting in the TOP HALF. That immediately lowers his plate volume and opportunity ceiling. He’ll be hitting in GLOBE LIFE FIELD, which ranks as the WORST PARK IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL for RIGHT-HANDED OFFENSE. That’s a brutal setting for a hitter already struggling. And the struggles are real—Semien has FAILED TO CLEAR THIS NUMBER IN 14 STRAIGHT GAMES, showing a consistent lack of impact at the plate. BUT what locks this pick in is how every factor is trending the wrong direction: cold streak, lineup demotion, and a hostile hitting environment for righties. So this projection sits way above his realistic ceiling today, and it’s a clear fade.

#2

👇M. Handley: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Maverick Handley has one of the weakest offensive outlooks on today’s slate. He’s projected to bat 9TH in the order, which is already a major knock against his chances of volume. His offensive skill profile is even more damning—THE BAT X ranks him in the 5TH PERCENTILE for OVERALL OFFENSIVE ABILITY, making him one of the least likely players in the league to produce reliably at the plate. Camden Yards might offer favorable wind today, BUT Handley hasn’t capitalized on any recent conditions—he has just ONE HIT in HIS LAST 10 GAMES. That kind of skid isn’t bad luck—it’s a signal. So with no form, no lineup support, and no skill-based projection to fall back on, this number is SIMPLY TOO HIGH.

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