Welcome back to MLB Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the MLB.

We’re locked in, hitting 72% of our last 40 MLB picks 🤯

NOTE: if you are only looking for NFL picks, you can always adjust your sports preferences at the bottom of every email and toggle on/off instantly!

Top MLB Picks (5/20)

#5

👇C. Bellinger: O 0.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Bellinger isn’t just in rhythm—he’s on one of the MOST CONSISTENT HITTING STREAKS IN BASEBALL, clearing this number in 13 STRAIGHT while averaging an ELITE 3.1 TOTAL BASES PER GAME. BUT the matchup today takes it even further in his favor—Bellinger ranks in the 85TH PERCENTILE in pull flyball rate, and he’ll be driving those balls toward Yankee Stadium’s 7TH-SHALLOWEST RF FENCES, one of the BEST setups in baseball for a lefty bat with his profile. He’s also slotted 4TH in the lineup, ensuring max opportunity in a game where he’ll benefit from favorable fence height and launch angles tailored to his swing. SO when you pair his current heater with a perfect park fit and a 79TH PERCENTILE offensive projection, this number is just too easy—he’s set up to SMASH it again.

👇P. Pages: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Pages already enters today with a major red flag: he’s projected in just the 22ND PERCENTILE in offensive ability—a massive drop-off from league average. BUT what really makes this contest tough is the environment around him. He’s batting 7TH in the order, which limits his volume, AND he’s facing one of the best pitchers on the slate in Tarik Skubal, who carries a 2.67 ERA into today’s matchup. This isn’t just a bad personal spot—it’s the worst offensive park in all of baseball right now. Busch Stadium ranks DEAD LAST for run-scoring according to THE BAT, and it also features the 5TH-MOST FAIR GROUND, making power production even harder. SO when you combine his bottom-tier profile with one of the WORST matchups in MLB and zero ballpark upside, this number feels WAY TOO HIGH.

#3

👇A. Amador: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Amador comes into today’s contest ice-cold—he’s failed to clear this number in 16 STRAIGHT GAMES, hitting a BRUTAL .098 during that stretch. BUT this isn’t just about recent form—his BABIP ability is projected in the 12TH PERCENTILE, and he’s slotted 8TH in the lineup, which minimizes his plate appearances and scoring chances. While Coors Field usually boosts offense, today’s setup flips the narrative. The forecast calls for just 18% HUMIDITY, the LOWEST ON THE SLATE, and that dry air has a proven link to reduced offense and increased strikeouts. SO even in the most hitter-friendly stadium in baseball, Amador’s lack of recent production, poor batted-ball profile, and limited lineup role make this pick a CLEAR FADE.

#2

👇C. Mead: U 0.5 Runs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Mead has been virtually invisible on the scoreboard—he’s scored just ONE RUN IN HIS LAST 30 GAMES, a stretch that completely exposes his lack of offensive impact. BUT what seals the deal here is how limited his opportunities truly are. He’s projected to bat 7TH, and in games where he faces a left-handed starter, he’s been PULLED EARLY in 39% OF THOSE GAMES, killing any chance to string together runs. He’ll also be hitting in one of the least favorable environments today—George M. Steinbrenner Field ranks as the 8TH-TOUGHEST PARK FOR RHB BATTING AVERAGE, making it one of the worst setups for someone already struggling. SO when you add in his weak .242 wOBA (20TH PERCENTILE) since last season, this number looks like a GIFT TO FADE.

Today’s 0.5 point specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly

👇 Try out NOVIG (link)

Use code: HOLKAMLB

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds