Welcome back to MLB Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the MLB.

We’re on a generational run right now hitting 70% of our last 30 MLB picks 🤯

NOTE: if you are only looking for NFL picks, you can always adjust your sports preferences at the bottom of every email and toggle on/off instantly!

Top MLB Picks (5/19)

#5

👇B. Brown: U 16.5 Outs

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Ben Brown has stayed below this number in 17 of his last 20 starts—just a 15% hit rate—and the setup today gives us every reason to expect that trend to continue. BUT he's projected to throw the 5TH-FEWEST PITCHES of any starter today according to THE BAT X, which reflects both matchup inefficiency and limited leash. That’s a massive red flag when betting on innings, especially in an environment that punishes contact. He’ll also be dealing with the 5TH-BEST HITTING WEATHER on the entire slate—hotter temps and humidity that have historically boosted offense and shortened outings across the league. SO with a capped pitch count, warm weather working against him, and a consistent trend of failing to reach six innings, this projection is too ambitious. We’re fading volume and trusting the data—Brown looks like a clear candidate to fall short again.

👇T. Freeman: U 1.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Tyler Freeman has failed to reach this number in 34 STRAIGHT GAMES, and there’s nothing in today’s setup suggesting he’ll break that streak. BUT he’s hitting 8TH in the lineup, which lowers his projected plate appearances in a loaded top-heavy offense. That kind of lineup position makes it difficult to deliver on total base volume—especially when you're not a power threat. He’s also dealing with the 2ND-MOST FAVORABLE WIND CONDITIONS FOR PITCHERS today, with 8.4 MPH gusts blowing IN FROM RIGHT FIELD, cutting down flyballs and keeping the ball in the park. And if you're banking on power to bail him out, that’s another dead end—Freeman ranks in the BOTTOM 8TH PERCENTILE in Barrel Rate since last season. SO even in Coors Field, with all its hype, Freeman brings no lift, no power, and limited opportunity. This isn’t just a bad spot—it’s one of the most obvious fades on the board.

#3

👇M. Conforto: U 0.5 RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Michael Conforto has just 1 RBI IN HIS LAST 36 GAMES, and it’s not a cold streak—it’s a complete collapse in production. BUT he’s buried in the 8-HOLE today, which limits his ability to come to the plate with runners on. Even if he gets opportunities, the odds of capitalizing are slim. He’s facing the 2ND-STRONGEST OUTFIELD DEFENSE on the slate in the Diamondbacks, which makes any contact harder to convert into run-producing hits. And when you dive into his metrics, they’re equally brutal—Conforto is hitting .174 on the year, ranking in the BOTTOM 5TH PERCENTILE in batting average. SO this isn’t a guy you can rely on to deliver in a clutch spot—not with this profile, this lineup spot, and this defense. The run production just isn’t coming, and this number has no business being in play for a bat this cold.

#2

👇C. Durbin: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Caleb Durbin has cleared this number in just 2 OF HIS LAST 16 GAMES, and today’s matchup offers no sign of reversal. BUT he’s playing in AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD, the 4TH-WORST RUN-SCORING PARK on the slate, which suppresses multi-category upside across the board. He also lacks the power to bail himself out, ranking in the 8TH PERCENTILE in home run talent according to THE BAT X—meaning he’s not a threat to contribute in chunks. With that in mind, we’re forced to rely on volume and situational hitting to get him there, and that’s another issue. SO when you stack it all together—a cold streak, a pitcher’s park, and bottom-tier power—there’s no angle that supports this projection. This is a sharp play that fades both the matchup and the metrics.

Today’s 0.5 point specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly

👇 Try out NOVIG (link)

Use code: HOLKAMLB

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds