Welcome back to MLB Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the MLB.

We’re on a generational run right now hitting 74% of our last 30 MLB picks 🤯

NOTE: if you are only looking for NFL picks, you can always adjust your sports preferences at the bottom of every email and toggle on/off instantly!

Top MLB Picks (5/16)

#5

👇M. Machado: O 1.5 Hts+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Manny Machado is locked in and on an absolute tear right now. He’s batting .333 this season and ranks in the 95TH PERCENTILE in batting average skill according to THE BAT X, showing he’s not just hot—he’s one of the most reliable contact hitters in baseball today. He’s locked into the 3-HOLE in San Diego’s lineup, which maximizes plate appearances and run-producing chances. AND he’s CRUSHED this number in 14 STRAIGHT games, giving us an elite sample of sustained form.
BUT the matchup makes this even more dangerous—Machado launches 39.7% of his flyballs to center field, ranking in the 95TH PERCENTILE, and today he’s targeting the 2ND-SHALLOWEST CENTER FIELD FENCES in the league. To make matters worse for the Mariners, their infield defense ranks 2ND-WORST among all teams on the slate, giving up extra base traffic and opening the door for more H+R+RBI opportunities.
SO when you stack elite form, premium lineup placement, ideal ball flight profile, and one of the worst opposing defenses in baseball, this projection becomes a GREEN LIGHT. It’s one of the STRONGEST spots on the board.

#4

👇T. Lipscomb: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Trey Lipscomb enters today’s contest in one of the least appealing offensive roles on the slate—he’s projected to hit 9TH in the lineup, the worst possible spot for both volume and opportunity. On top of that, he’s severely lacking in power, ranking in the 5TH PERCENTILE for home run talent according to THE BAT X. That lack of impact contact limits both scoring and RBI potential.
BUT what really compounds the issue is his instability in the lineup. Against left-handed pitchers like Cade Povich, Lipscomb has been pinch-hit for in 24% of matchups since the start of last season. That level of role volatility means there’s a real chance he doesn’t even finish this game.
SO when you pair a low-contact, low-power profile with bottom-of-the-lineup placement and a track record of early exits in this exact matchup type, this number becomes completely unjustified. This pick is a FADE across the board.

#3

👇M. Conforto: U 0.5 RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Michael Conforto continues to struggle in every meaningful way at the plate. He’s projected to bat 7TH today, giving him reduced access to run-producing opportunities. More importantly, he’s been nearly invisible on the stat sheet—he’s recorded just 1 RBI in his last 32 games, and his slugging percentage ranks in the 11TH PERCENTILE, signaling almost no extra-base threat.
BUT it gets even worse when you zoom out to today’s matchup context. He’s facing one of the 3RD-BEST pitching environments on the board, and the Angels’ defense behind Jack Kochanowicz is no joke—their outfield grades out as the 2ND-BEST in baseball. That means even well-hit balls are far less likely to fall.
SO with a cold bat, a weak lineup position, and a brutally tough run-prevention setup, this RBI projection feels WAY TOO GENEROUS. There's just no reason to expect production here.

#2

👇A. Monasterio: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Andruw Monasterio’s offensive profile is as cold as it gets. He’s yet to log a SINGLE HIT this entire season and now steps in projected to hit 8TH, which already caps his volume upside. Add in a clear vulnerability vs right-handed pitching, and things look bleak.
BUT today’s matchup makes this borderline unplayable—he’s up against Joe Ryan, who enters with a 0.95 ERA over his last 3 starts and holds a large platoon advantage against Monasterio. Even when given the chance, Monasterio hasn’t been trusted—he’s been pulled early in 12% of righty matchups since the start of last season.
SO you’re looking at a hitless bat, buried in the lineup, facing an ELITE arm with history of early exits. This pick shouldn’t even be on the board—it’s a CLEAR FADE.

Today’s 0.5 point specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly

👇 Try out NOVIG (link)

Use code: HOLKAMLB

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds