Welcome back to MLB Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the MLB.

We’re on a generational run right now hitting 76% of our last 25 MLB picks 🤯

NOTE: if you are only looking for NFL picks, you can always adjust your sports preferences at the bottom of every email and toggle on/off instantly!

Top MLB Picks (5/15)

#5

👇A. Pages: O 0.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Andy Pages has been one of the most consistent base hitters in baseball lately—he’s cleared this number in 9 OF HIS LAST 10 GAMES, showing excellent contact and discipline at the plate. His power is amplified tonight at DODGER STADIUM, which THE BAT ranks as the 7TH-BEST ballpark for right-handed hitters, and more importantly, it has the LOWEST AVERAGE FENCE HEIGHT IN MLB, giving hard-hit balls a higher chance of landing for extra bases. But the real mismatch is on the mound—Pages gets to face OSVALDO BIDO, who ranks in the BOTTOM 7% of all MLB pitchers in overall talent. So not only is Pages in elite recent form, he’s in a park that boosts power for righties and faces a pitcher who simply isn’t at the same level. This number is WAY TOO LOW for the kind of spot Pages is in—this matchup is built for him to deliver.

#4

👇C. Smith: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Cam Smith enters today in one of the WORST offensive environments possible—GLOBE LIFE FIELD, which ranks as the WORST PARK IN BASEBALL for right-handed hitters, according to THE BAT. That alone would be a problem, but Smith also draws JACOB DEGROM, one of the toughest matchups in the league, who owns the HANDEDNESS ADVANTAGE and a 2.71 ERA. Smith is also BATTING 9TH, the lowest slot in the order, meaning he’ll get fewer chances to contribute to scoring or driving in runs. But what really seals it is his recent trend—Smith has CLEARED THIS NUMBER IN JUST 25% OF HIS LAST 12 GAMES, showing a consistent lack of production even in more favorable spots than this. So today he’s hitting in the league’s toughest park for his profile, facing one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, and doing it with almost no volume. This contest is a complete stay-away—everything stacks against him.

#3

👇J. Outman: U 1.5 Total Bases

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

James Outman is in a brutal cold stretch, hitting this number just ONCE IN HIS LAST 12 GAMES, and THE BAT X projects him in the 3RD PERCENTILE in batting average ability, with a shocking .059 AVG on the season. That’s not just a slump—it’s an alarm bell. On top of that, Outman’s batted-ball profile makes things worse: he pulls 37% of his flyballs (95TH PERCENTILE), and tonight those are going straight into DODGER STADIUM’S 8TH-DEEPEST RIGHT FIELD FENCES. That’s a death sentence for contact hitters who rely on pull power. But also, he’s projected to BAT 8TH, further limiting plate appearances and reducing any late-game opportunity. So what you’re looking at here is a player with NO CONTACT, a BRUTAL park matchup for his hitting tendencies, and extremely limited volume. There’s just no case for him to get on the board in this contest—this number is still too generous.

#2

👇M. Conforto: U 0.5 RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Michael Conforto has gone 10 STRAIGHT GAMES WITHOUT AN RBI, and nothing in the data suggests today’s going to be the day he turns it around. He’s hitting in the 6TH SPOT, which removes the benefit of hitting behind elite table-setters, and THE BAT X projects him in the 22ND PERCENTILE for BABIP talent, meaning his ability to capitalize on base runners is already limited by poor luck and contact quality. But that’s not all—his recent swing path has also regressed, with his average launch angle on hard-hit balls falling to 10°, down from 15.5° last year. That change means fewer line drives and more soft contact—exactly what you DON’T want in an RBI spot. So even in a decent park, the combination of ICE-COLD FORM, POOR BATTING SLOT, and BAD CONTACT PROFILE means this number remains too high. There’s no momentum or upside case here—it’s a hard pass.

Today’s 0.5 point specials & bonus cash

Leveraging promotions and specials across sportsbooks is the #1 key to success in prop betting and pick'em.

By partnering with multiple apps, YOU’LL get access to the best lines and daily offers, enhancing your strategy and maximizing your chances at winning long term. Sign up and start with a guaranteed win (0.5 points) today…

👇 Try out PrizePicks (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup

👇 Try out Underdog (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Get your 1st deposit matched up to $1,000

👇 Try out Sleeper (link)

Use code: MLBARMY

Place a $5 contest, Get $55 instantly

👇 Try out NOVIG (link)

Use code: HOLKAMLB

Get 50% off up to $25 in Novig Cash!

Or if you’re sick of parlays, the place I bet straight markets is always Novig because they have the best odds