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Top MLB Picks (5/12)

#5

👇J. Merrill: O 0.5 Total Bases

Best line: (Underdog) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Jackson Merrill has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball and has CRUSHED this number in 88% of his last 17 games. But it’s not just the surface stats—he’s batting .446, one of the highest marks in the league over that stretch, and he’s not just spraying singles. Merrill hits an INSANE 40.1% of his flyballs to center field, ranking in the 98TH PERCENTILE league-wide, which perfectly sets up for today’s environment. He’ll have a MASSIVE park advantage at Petco Park, which features the 2ND-SHALLOWEST CENTER FIELD FENCES in the league—making it one of the most favorable layouts for hitters with Merrill’s exact profile. So when you pair his elite contact quality, red-hot form, and perfect park geometry, this projection at just 0.5 total bases feels like a GIFT.

#4

👇A. Toro: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (Sleeper) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Abraham Toro hasn’t cleared this number in 13 STRAIGHT GAMES, and the conditions today make it extremely unlikely he snaps that cold streak. He’s projected to hit 7TH in the lineup, meaning he’ll see fewer plate appearances and fewer chances to impact the stat sheet. But even beyond his lineup spot, the matchup today is brutal. He’s hitting at Comerica Park, which ranks as the 6TH-WORST RUN-SCORING ENVIRONMENT in Major League Baseball, according to THE BAT projection system. That alone makes things tough, but it gets worse: center field at Comerica is the 2ND-DEEPEST in all of baseball, killing extra-base hit potential. So with less volume, a deep and dead offensive park, and a 13-game streak of zero production, this projection is just TOO HIGH for a player with almost no runway for success.

#3

👇C. Durbin: U 0.5 Runs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Caleb Durbin has scored just once in his last 12 games, and today’s setup might be the toughest one yet for him to break that slump. He’s locked into the 9-SPOT in the order, which is a near-death sentence for run production. But the park and matchup make this a complete fade. He’ll be hitting in Progressive Field, which THE BAT ranks as the #1 PARK FOR SUPPRESSING HOME RUNS TO RIGHT-HANDED HITTERS—Durbin’s hitting side today. Not only that, but the fences here are the 4TH-TALLEST on average in the league, further limiting his ability to get extra-base hits or even deep flyouts that move him into scoring position. So with a bottom-barrel batting spot, a power-suppressing park, and THE BAT X projecting him in the 8TH PERCENTILE for home run talent, there’s just no path for him to cross the plate today. This number is completely mispriced.

#2

👇T. Taylor: U 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Best line: (PrizePicks) USE CODE: MLBARMY | or straight bet this on NOVIG

Tyrone Taylor has missed this number in 74% of his last 20 games, and there’s almost no upside in today’s matchup. He’s batting 9TH, offering the lowest possible volume in the lineup, and he’s running into one of the hardest individual and park matchups on the board. Taylor faces Paul Skenes, a 2.77 ERA ace who not only owns the platoon advantage but has elite command and control, limiting hard contact across the board. And while that’s bad enough, Citi Field is even worse for hitters like Taylor—it ranks as the #1 PARK FOR SUPPRESSING BABIP TO RIGHT-HANDED HITTERS, per THE BAT, and its sea-level elevation naturally limits offense. So when you add up the low order spot, ace-level matchup, and the worst possible BABIP park for righties, this number feels DOA.

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