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Jeremy Fears’ scoring volume remains capped in a defensive matchup.

• Has cleared this in just 4 of his last 24 road games
• Has missed this in both tournament games, averaging 9.5 points
• UConn allowed the 4TH-FEWEST points in the country this season and just held UCLA to 57 points

Elite defensive resistance limits scoring opportunity.

Joson Sanon’s scoring outlook tightens against elite defense and reduced role.

• Has cleared this just twice over his last 10 road games
• Has missed this in both tournament games, averaging 4.5 points
• Duke ranks as the NATION’S TOP defense and allowed the 2ND-FEWEST points this season

Sanon shot 1-of-8 vs. Kansas, and his minutes have dropped to 17 per game over his last 3 compared to 23.8 in the previous 5. My #1 pick has crushed his projection in both tournament games.

Aiden Sherrell’s scoring consistency aligns with one of the most permissive Sweet 16 defenses.

• Has cleared this in 73% of his last 11 games, averaging 12 points
• Is averaging 12.5 points per game in the tournament
• Michigan has allowed the 2ND-MOST points of any Sweet 16 team in this tournament

Sustained scoring volume plus defensive vulnerability supports continued production.

Aday Mara’s all-around efficiency meets one of the weakest defensive profiles left.

• Has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 games
• Has cleared this in both tournament games, averaging 29 PRA
• Alabama entered March Madness as the 4TH-WORST defense in the field

Alabama allowed 39.7 rebounds per game this season, the MOST of any tournament team, and Mara is shooting 68% from the field this tournament.

Cameron Boozer faces one of the toughest defensive environments remaining.

• Has cleared this in just 17% of his last 12 home games
• Has missed this in both tournament games
• St. John’s has allowed just 59 points per game in two tournament games, the 2ND-FEWEST in the field

St. John’s entered the tournament ranked #8 nationally in defensive efficiency.

C. Cox: O 11.5 PRA came through yesterday.

20 PRA. Easy money.

My #1 pick for today is below.