Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
Thursday Night Football… the first slate of the year was a massive success!
✅ L. Jackson: O 48.5 rush yards
✅ D. Henry: U 16 rush att
✅ P. Mahomes: O 263.5 pass yards
✅ R. Rice: O 60.5 rec yards
✅ M. Hardman: U 9.5 rec yards
Let’s do it again on Sunday! ⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Locks of the Week (NFL Week 1)
#8
Best Line: (Betr) | (DraftKings) (FanDuel) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
The Cowboys defense allowed the 2nd-fewest pass attempts and 5th-fewest yards last season.
#7
The Raiders allowed 4th-highest adjusted completion rate to WRs last year. With the Chargers expected to have a fast-paced offense... McConkey will crush this number.
#6
My model projects him to get only about 30% of the carries. Easy UNDER here.
#5
The Bengals allowed the most adjusted yards per target to wide receivers last season. And the Patriots, 9-point underdogs in this game, will give Polk plenty of opportunities in garbage time.
#4
Arizona's defense allowed the 8th-fewest passing yards last year. Buffalo's offense is expected to be among the slowest. Both factors don't look good for a ceiling performance through the air.
#3
Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
The Bills allowed the 3rd-fewest pass attempts last season. Arizona is projected to run one of the 6th-fewest plays this week. Simple.
#2
The Bills’ defense allowed the fewest yards after catch last year to wide receivers and there isn't enough passing volume in this game for him to get there.
Any-Time TD Picks (Pt. 2)
- Leg 1: Saquon Barkley. The Packers allowed the 7th-most rushing TDs last season and the Eagles are expected to have the fastest-paced offense in the NFL. So more scoring opportunities regardless of the tush push.
- Leg 2: David Montgomery. He scored 13 times last season en route to the 4th-highest TD rate at the position... and he'll play in this week's highest-scoring game.
- Leg 3: Jonathan Taylor. The Colts will be one of the most run-heavy teams this year. But people forget, JT is just two years removed from a 20-touchdown season.
- Leg 4: Kenneth Walker III. The Broncos allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards and 9th-most rushing TDs to the position in 2023. So it's just a nut matchup for a home favorite.
- Leg 5: Josh Allen. The Cardinals allowed the 6th-most rushing TDs to QBs last season. And Allen tied with Jalen Hurts for the most rush TDs at the position, with 15.
- Leg 6: Breece Hall. The Jets' offense will be much improved with Aaron Rodgers, and Hall will be their go-to guy in the red zone.
- Leg 7: Rachaad White. The Commanders were in the bottom 5 for rushing and receiving TDs allowed to the position... and the Bucs are home favorites expected to score 3-4 times.