Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Thursday Night Football… the first slate of the year was a massive success!

✅ L. Jackson: O 48.5 rush yards

✅ D. Henry: U 16 rush att

✅ P. Mahomes: O 263.5 pass yards

✅ R. Rice: O 60.5 rec yards

✅ M. Hardman: U 9.5 rec yards

There’s a $100 giveaway on my Instagram story to celebrate!

Let’s do it again on Sunday! ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Locks of the Week (NFL Week 1)

#8

Best Line: (Betr) | (DraftKings) (FanDuel) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Cowboys defense allowed the 2nd-fewest pass attempts and 5th-fewest yards last season.

#7

Best Line: (Sleeper) | (Caesars)| USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Raiders allowed 4th-highest adjusted completion rate to WRs last year. With the Chargers expected to have a fast-paced offense... McConkey will crush this number.

#6

Best Line: (Underdog) (Betr) (Caesars) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

My model projects him to get only about 30% of the carries. Easy UNDER here.

#5

Best Line: (Betr) (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Bengals allowed the most adjusted yards per target to wide receivers last season. And the Patriots, 9-point underdogs in this game, will give Polk plenty of opportunities in garbage time.

#4

Best Line: (Underdog) (Betr) (Caesars) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Arizona's defense allowed the 8th-fewest passing yards last year. Buffalo's offense is expected to be among the slowest. Both factors don't look good for a ceiling performance through the air.

#3

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Bills allowed the 3rd-fewest pass attempts last season. Arizona is projected to run one of the 6th-fewest plays this week. Simple.

#2

Best Line: (Sleeper) (Betr) (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Bills’ defense allowed the fewest yards after catch last year to wide receivers and there isn't enough passing volume in this game for him to get there.

Any-Time TD Picks (Pt. 2)

Best Lines: (Underdog) (Betr) (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

- Leg 1: Saquon Barkley. The Packers allowed the 7th-most rushing TDs last season and the Eagles are expected to have the fastest-paced offense in the NFL. So more scoring opportunities regardless of the tush push.

- Leg 2: David Montgomery. He scored 13 times last season en route to the 4th-highest TD rate at the position... and he'll play in this week's highest-scoring game.

- Leg 3: Jonathan Taylor. The Colts will be one of the most run-heavy teams this year. But people forget, JT is just two years removed from a 20-touchdown season.

- Leg 4: Kenneth Walker III. The Broncos allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards and 9th-most rushing TDs to the position in 2023. So it's just a nut matchup for a home favorite.

- Leg 5: Josh Allen. The Cardinals allowed the 6th-most rushing TDs to QBs last season. And Allen tied with Jalen Hurts for the most rush TDs at the position, with 15.

- Leg 6: Breece Hall. The Jets' offense will be much improved with Aaron Rodgers, and Hall will be their go-to guy in the red zone.

- Leg 7: Rachaad White. The Commanders were in the bottom 5 for rushing and receiving TDs allowed to the position... and the Bucs are home favorites expected to score 3-4 times.