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Per usual its our weekly DraftKings DFS breakdown (position-by-position).

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Sunday Night Football (CIN @ LAC)

#6

👇 J. Dobbins: U 14.5 rush attempts

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

J.K. Dobbins’ role in the Chargers' backfield is shrinking, and this week sets up as another tough spot for him to hit his number. Last week, with Gus Edwards back in the lineup, Dobbins handled just 60% of the backfield touches—his lowest rate since Week 2. BUT the Chargers' offensive game plan adds even more doubt. They are projected to run the 2ND-FEWEST plays (62) of any team this week, and their passing attack is expected to take center stage, limiting Dobbins’ rushing volume further. The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, has been elite against the run, with their linebackers ranking 2ND-BEST in stopping opposing running backs.

Dobbins has largely relied on volume for production, but the forecasted game script is working against him. The Bengals are likely to push the Chargers into a pass-heavy attack, and with Dobbins already losing valuable goal-line opportunities to Edwards, the touches just won’t be there. SO while Dobbins remains a key player for the Chargers, the UNDER on his rushing attempts feels like the safest play.

#5

👇 L. McConkey: U 69.5 rec yards

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Ladd McConkey is a talented player, but this week’s matchup is stacked against him. He has failed to exceed 67 yards in 9 of 10 games this season, and his target share has dropped to 17.6% over the past month. BUT the Bengals’ defense makes this an even tougher spot. They allow the 2ND-FEWEST points to slot receivers, and slot WRs account for only 31.7% of all receptions against them—the 2ND-LOWEST rate in the league.

The Bengals’ secondary is also stingy on a per-target basis, ranking 8TH-BEST in yards per target allowed to slot WRs (7.1). Combined with the Chargers being projected to run just 62 plays (2ND-LOWEST this week), McConkey’s volume and efficiency are both capped. SO while he remains a reliable option in other spots, the UNDER is the clear choice in this matchup.

#4

👇 J. Chase: O 69.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Ja’Marr Chase is in prime position to CRUSH this modest projection. He’s coming off a season-defining game with 264 yards and three touchdowns, and he’s averaged an impressive 89 receiving yards per game this season—nearly 20 yards above this number. BUT the real advantage lies in the matchup. The Bengals are projected to be the MOST PASS-HEAVY TEAM this week, boasting a 66.4% pass rate that aligns perfectly with Chase’s expected 30.5% target share, one of the highest among all receivers. The Chargers' defense has been a goldmine for wideouts, ranking 8TH-WORST in adjusted yards per target allowed and 27TH in yards per catch (13.4).

What makes this pick even more OBVIOUS is the potential return of Tee Higgins. With Higgins on the field, Chase’s efficiency skyrockets, averaging 3.12 yards per route run and 10.7 air yards per target compared to 2.14 and 8.3 without him. This creates an even greater opportunity for Chase to DOMINATE. SO against a defense that has consistently struggled to contain WR1s, Chase’s ability to create big plays and command volume makes this projection feel way too low.

#3

👇 Q. Johnston: O 29.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Quentin Johnston is quietly set up to SMASH this projection as his role in the Chargers’ offense continues to grow. He’s improved his efficiency significantly this season, boosting his catch rate to 70.1% and averaging 9.76 adjusted yards per target—both big jumps from last year. BUT the Bengals' defense makes this pick feel like a LOCK. They rank 8TH-WORST in adjusted receiving yards allowed to wide receivers and are particularly vulnerable to outside threats, ranking 30TH in points allowed to receivers lining up outside. This aligns perfectly with Johnston, who plays 91% of his snaps on the perimeter.

Adding to the appeal, the Bengals have allowed the 9TH-MOST yards after the catch to wideouts, a dynamic that plays directly into Johnston’s ability to create extra yardage (7.85 YAC per reception). With the Chargers expected to lean more on their passing attack this week after last game’s run-heavy approach, Johnston’s opportunities are set to increase. SO in a game where volume and matchup both favor him, this number feels way too low.

#2

👇 W. Dissly: O 19.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Will Dissly has quietly become one of the most reliable options in the Chargers’ passing attack, and this week’s matchup gives him a chance to SHINE. Over his last four games, Dissly has averaged 40.25 receiving yards, nearly doubling this projection. BUT it’s the Bengals' defense that truly seals this pick. They rank 8TH-HIGHEST in adjusted completion rate allowed to tight ends (79.6%) and have given up the 4TH-MOST receptions to the position.

Dissly’s involvement has been steadily increasing, as he’s seen over 20% of the team’s targets in three of his last four games. His efficiency is also trending up, with an 18.1% target share this season compared to just 3.5% last year. The Bengals’ safeties, who grade out as the 2ND-WORST unit in the league, are another key weakness Dissly can exploit. SO with the matchup, volume, and efficiency all pointing to a strong performance, this number feels like a free square.

Monday Night Football (HOU @ DAL)

#5

👇 J. Mixon: O 79.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Joe Mixon has been a workhorse this season, and this matchup sets him up to dominate once again. Mixon is projected for 23.5 carries this week, THE MOST among all running backs, and he owns a massive 72.6% share of his team’s backfield touches—THE HIGHEST in the league. BUT the real key is the Cowboys’ defense, which ranks DEAD LAST in adjusted rushing yards allowed per game, giving up a staggering 155.0 yards to opposing teams.

This game is also expected to feature THE 2ND-MOST offensive plays of the week (133.8), further boosting Mixon’s opportunity to rack up yards. With an average of 93.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season, Mixon has consistently exceeded expectations, and this matchup only enhances his chances of smashing this number. SO, it’s time to lock this in—this one FEELS FREE.

#4

👇 R. Dowdle: U 59.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Rico Dowdle has seen increased opportunities in recent weeks, BUT this matchup sets him up for disappointment. Houston’s defense ranks as THE 8TH-BEST against the run this season, holding opponents to just 4.39 adjusted yards per carry. Dowdle has struggled to create extra yardage, averaging only 2.86 yards after contact, which places him in THE 24TH PERCENTILE among running backs.

The game script doesn’t help either—Dallas is a 7.5-point underdog, which strongly favors a pass-heavy approach as they attempt to keep up with Houston’s efficient offense. In situations like this, Dowdle’s impact is limited, especially against a Texans defense that consistently shuts down running backs, as we saw last week with Gibbs and Montgomery. SO, this number is WAY TOO HIGH, and it’s a clear spot to fade Dowdle’s rushing output.

#3

👇 J. Ferguson: U 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Jake Ferguson faces an uphill battle this week against one of the stingiest defenses in football. The Texans allow just 29.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends, THE FEWEST in the league, and they’ve held tight ends to an adjusted completion rate of only 56.7%—THE LOWEST in the NFL. Houston also allows THE FEWEST yards per target to the position (4.8), making it extremely difficult for Ferguson to have an impactful day.

BUT Ferguson’s efficiency has already taken a step back this season, averaging just 6.8 adjusted yards per target compared to 8.2 last year. Combine that with a Dallas offensive line that ranks as THE 3RD-WORST in pass protection, and it’s clear Ferguson won’t have the time or space needed to make big plays. SO, this projection is WAY TOO HIGH against Houston’s elite tight end defense.

#2

👇 J. Schultz: O 19.5 rec yards

Best Line: (PrizePicks) (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Dalton Schultz steps into a dream matchup this week, and it’s hard to see how he doesn’t crush this projection. The Cowboys allow THE MOST adjusted yards per target to tight ends (10.15) and THE MOST yards after the catch to the position, making Schultz’s role even more valuable in this game. He’s running routes on 77% of his team’s dropbacks, ranking in THE 89TH PERCENTILE among tight ends, and has beaten this projection in 7 STRAIGHT GAMES, averaging 37.4 receiving yards during that span.

BUT there’s more: this is a REVENGE GAME for Schultz as he faces his former team. Add in the fact that this contest is expected to feature THE 2ND-MOST offensive plays of the week (133.8), and Schultz is positioned for consistent involvement against a Dallas defense that has struggled to cover the middle of the field. SO, this projection is OBVIOUSLY too low, and you should be all over it.

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