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Monday Night Football (BAL @ LAC)

#5

👇 Q, Johnston: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Quentin Johnston is a SCORING MACHINE, and this matchup makes it likely he finds the end zone again. Johnston has scored in THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, pushing his season total to six touchdowns as he continues to shine in a revamped Chargers offense. BUT it’s Baltimore’s defense that makes this pick stand out. The Ravens are allowing a league-high 128.0 receiving yards per game to outside WRs, where Johnston thrives, and they’ve given up the 5TH-MOST deep touchdowns this season. Johnston’s role has expanded significantly, with 29.7% of his targets coming on high-value deep plays, making him a consistent big-play threat. AND his 7.36 yards-after-catch ability gives him the extra edge to turn short throws into scoring opportunities. SO, with a favorable matchup, a red-hot scoring streak, and expanded usage in LA’s offense, this pick feels FREE

#4

👇 L. McConkey: O 19.5 longest rec

Best Line: (Underdog ) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Ladd McConkey is a BIG-PLAY MACHINE, and this projection doesn’t reflect his upside. McConkey is coming off a massive 123-yard game in Week 11, where he hauled in multiple 20+ yard catches. He’s now beaten this number in 5 STRAIGHT GAMES and 6 of his last 7, proving his consistency as a vertical threat. BUT what makes this pick truly stand out is the matchup. Baltimore has allowed the 2ND-MOST deep receptions in the NFL this season, repeatedly getting torched by downfield plays. McConkey runs 69% of his routes from the slot, where the Ravens have also struggled, allowing the 5TH-MOST adjusted yards per target to slot receivers. AND with the Chargers projected to pass on 58.5% of plays, McConkey will have plenty of opportunities to stretch the field. SO, with a perfect combination of matchup dynamics and consistent production, this is an EASY CASH.

#3

👇 J. Herbert: O 239.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Sleeper)| USE CODE: NFLARMY

Justin Herbert is in a PRIME POSITION to DOMINATE this matchup, and here’s why. The Ravens rank DEAD LAST in adjusted passing yards allowed per game, creating a massive opportunity for Herbert to exploit. Baltimore also surrenders the 4TH-MOST adjusted yards per target this season, making them one of the league’s worst teams at defending intermediate and deep throws. BUT the situation becomes even more compelling when you consider volume: Opposing offenses have thrown the MOST pass attempts per game against Baltimore this year (41.7), which aligns perfectly with the Chargers’ pass-heavy tendencies. Herbert is projected to lead an offense that passes on 58.5% of plays, the 7TH-HIGHEST rate in Week 12. AND he’s been on fire lately, averaging 9.0 yards per attempt over his last four games—ranking among the league’s most efficient QBs during that span. SO, with Herbert heating up and facing a defense that has been consistently EXPOSED through the air, this projection feels WAY TOO LOW.

#2

👇 L. Jackson: O 29.5 rush yards

Best Line: (Underdog - alt) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Lamar Jackson is a FORCE on the ground, and this number is WAY TOO LOW. Jackson averages 53 rushing yards per game this season, nearly DOUBLE the Week 12 projection. BUT it’s the matchup with the Chargers that seals the deal. LA has allowed the 25TH-MOST rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (26.2 per game), putting them among the bottom tier of defenses at containing mobile QBs. Recent history paints an even clearer picture: Kyler Murray (64 yards), Joe Burrow (28), and Bo Nix (61) all exposed this weakness, each tacking on significant yardage. AND the Ravens are projected to run on 48.5% of plays this week, the 3RD-HIGHEST rate among all teams, with Jackson expected to handle nearly 9 carries—ranking 2ND among all quarterbacks. His rushing play share (28.3%) is in the 100TH PERCENTILE for QBs, underscoring his central role in Baltimore’s ground attack. SO, with elite metrics like 2.37 yards-after-contact (84TH PERCENTILE) and a defense that can’t stop mobile threats, this is an EASY SMASH.

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