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Monday Night Football (BUF @ NYJ)

#5

👇 A. Rodgers: U 229.5 pass yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Aaron Rodgers has been airing it out more than almost any quarterback in the league, with the Jets passing on 67.8% of plays this season, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team. But Rodgers’ accuracy has been concerning, ranking in the 19th percentile with an adjusted completion rate of just 61.8%. Combine that with Buffalo’s defense, which has allowed the 5th-fewest yards per pass attempt this year, and it’s clear Rodgers will have a tough time reaching 229.5 yards. So, even though the volume will be there, the efficiency won’t be, making the lower projection a smart play.

#4

👇 G. Wilson: U 69.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Garrett Wilson has seen an insane 22 targets in his last game, which might make you think the over is in play here. But Wilson has been inefficient with those targets, ranking in the bottom 20th percentile for yards per target this season. The Vikings’ defense, meanwhile, has forced opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league, but they’ve done a great job limiting yards after the catch, allowing the 9th-fewest YAC. So, while Wilson will continue to see a heavy target share, his struggle to turn those into meaningful gains and Minnesota’s ability to limit big plays make the lower on 69.5 yards the right move.

#3

👇 A. Lazard: U 39.5 rec yards

Best Line: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Allen Lazard has been Rodgers’ go-to target in contested catch situations, and his target share has increased this season, up to 18.5%. But the Buffalo Bills’ defense has been elite at shutting down wide receivers, giving up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game this season. Lazard also remains highly touchdown-dependent, with over 50% of his fantasy production coming from scores rather than yardage. So, despite his increased role, the Bills’ 3rd-ranked cornerbacks and their ability to limit yards after the catch make it hard to see Lazard topping 39.5 yards.

#2

👇 B. Hall: O 12.5 rush att

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Breece Hall’s involvement has increased dramatically this season, with him playing on 73.1% of the Jets' offensive snaps, a huge jump from 55.3% last year. But the Jets are the least run-centric offense in the NFL, rushing the ball at just 32.2%, which ranks 32nd out of 32 teams. So, while that may make you hesitate, Buffalo's defense ranks 28th in the league in run-stopping ability over their last five games. With the Bills’ safeties struggling, Hall is in a prime position to easily exceed 12.5 rush attempts, especially if the Jets want to control the clock and keep Buffalo's offense off the field.