JAX @ CIN

Football is officially back. Jaguars vs. Bengals is the headline matchup, and I’ve locked in the sharpest edge on the board… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Burrow: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Joe Burrow is fresh off leading the entire NFL in passing touchdowns last season with 43, proving he’s the most consistent red-zone quarterback in football. But Jacksonville’s defense is still the same unit that allowed the MOST passing yards in the NFL and the 7TH-MOST passing touchdowns in 2024. Their Week 1 “success” came against a pedestrian Panthers offense that barely tested them through the air, so it tells us nothing about whether they’ve actually improved.

So when Burrow, who routinely picks apart soft secondaries, steps into this matchup, the setup is obvious. His elite track record against bad defenses meets a unit that has consistently been DESTROYED through the air. That’s why this projection feels almost disrespectful. Burrow throwing two touchdowns is less of a gamble and more of a certainty.

#4 - B. Thomas Jr: O 69.5 Rec Yards

Brian Thomas Jr.’s box score from Week 1 doesn’t tell the whole story. He finished with just one catch for 11 yards, but he still commanded 7 targets, proving his role is secure. But the bigger picture here is his 2024 finish, when he averaged 96 yards per game across his last 7 outings, showing his ceiling and consistency when volume comes his way.

And Cincinnati’s defense just got carved up by Cleveland for 290 passing yards, the 5TH-MOST of any team in Week 1. So we’re pairing a WR who has already shown he can be a high-yardage machine with a defense that BLEEDS passing production. That’s the perfect storm: volume, talent, and matchup all pointing in the same direction. This number is WAY TOO LOW, and Thomas has every path to CRUSH 70 yards again.

#3 - T. Etienne: O 14.5 Receiving yards

Travis Etienne saw 3 targets in Week 1, and with Tank Bigsby shipped out of town, there’s no question this is his backfield in both the rushing and passing game. But what makes this projection laughable is what we just saw from Cincinnati.

In Week 1, Browns running back Dylan Sampson put up 64 receiving yards against this exact defense, one of the HIGHEST totals by any back last week. So if Sampson can torch them through the air, Etienne, a far more dynamic weapon, is in a prime spot to take advantage. The volume is there, the role is solidified, and the matchup is already screaming vulnerability. This number under 15 feels broken. Etienne doesn’t need much to clear it, and everything in his usage plus this defense’s weakness says he will do it EASILY.

#2 - B. Strange: O 24.5 Rec Yards

Brenton Strange came out of Week 1 as one of Jacksonville’s few bright spots, hauling in 4 catches for 59 yards and looking like a reliable short-to-intermediate option. But Cincinnati’s defense just surrendered 100 yards to Cleveland’s tight ends, the 3RD-MOST allowed by any team last week.

That isn’t a random blip. It’s a glaring weakness that Strange is positioned to exploit again. So when you pair his early involvement with a defense already giving up massive production to the position, this projection makes no sense. His Week 1 role showed trust, his numbers already doubled this projection, and the opponent is one of the WORST at defending tight ends. That combination makes this pick feel automatic, with Strange set up to SMASH more than 25 yards.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One game, one number, and one clear edge—hit it now before the market catches up.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe