KC @ LAC

Football is officially back. The market always misses on a few spots, and tonight’s Friday night showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers is no different. Here are my best bets… in two minutes or less.

#5 - T. Kelce: O 4.5 Receptions

Kelce remains one of the most reliable volume tight ends in football, running routes on 86.5% of snaps last year which ranked in the 97TH PERCENTILE, while commanding an elite target share. The Chiefs are projected to PASS on the HIGHEST RATE of the slate this week at nearly 65% and they will also operate at the 7TH-FASTEST pace, snapping in under 28 seconds on average. That combination of tempo and volume means Mahomes will throw early and often, and Kelce will be the first read on most plays.

But the projection model already has him pegged for 7.8 targets in this game, again ranking in the 97TH PERCENTILE for tight ends. And while the Chargers were the BEST defense against tight ends last season, allowing the FEWEST adjusted receiving yards to the position, Kelce still CLEARED this number in both matchups. So with usage, pace, and history all lined up, five receptions feels more like his floor than his ceiling.

#4 - J. Herbert: U 1.5 Pass TDs

Herbert enters a tough spot against one of the most disciplined defenses in football. The Chargers are projected to PASS at the 7TH-HIGHEST rate of the slate, and Kansas City consistently forces opponents into the 10TH-MOST attempts per game. That sounds like volume will be there, but it does not translate into scoring efficiency.

But the Chiefs coverage is designed to bend without breaking, anchored by safeties who graded as the 4TH-BEST unit in football last season. They allowed the 2ND-LOWEST adjusted yards per target to tight ends, which shuts down one of Herbert’s most common red-zone outlets. And while being an underdog should push Los Angeles to throw, Herbert’s efficiency historically collapses against this scheme. So the chances of him producing two touchdowns in this matchup are slim, making the lower the clear play.

#3 - K. Allen: O 2.5 Receptions

Allen has been one of the most consistent slot receivers in the league, averaging 4.8 catches per game last year, ranking in the 81ST PERCENTILE. The projection model expects 6.4 targets for him this week, already in the 77TH PERCENTILE among wideouts. The Chargers are also projected to PASS at the 7TH-HIGHEST rate on the slate as underdogs, setting up a game where volume will naturally flow his way.

But the real mismatch comes in the slot, where Kansas City allowed a LEAGUE-HIGH 52% of WR catches last season. Their defense also forces quarterbacks into the 10TH-MOST attempts per game, funneling extra volume to quick-hitting possession receivers. So with role, volume, and matchup all pointing the same direction, three catches for Allen feels automatic.

#2 - L. McConkey: O 59.5 Yards

McConkey flashed his upside immediately last season, averaging 88 receiving yards per game from Week 8 on. Now he steps into a game where the Chargers are projected to PASS on nearly 60% of plays, which is the 7TH-HIGHEST rate of the week. Add in the fact that they are underdogs, and passing volume only gets pushed higher.

But Kansas City’s defense forces quarterbacks into the 10TH-MOST attempts per game, creating opportunities for wide receivers to rack up production. They also allowed the 9TH-HIGHEST adjusted completion rate to wideouts last season at nearly 68%. That is the exact type of environment where McConkey’s precision route-running can carve up a secondary. So with talent, volume, and matchup all aligning, 60 yards feels like a number he can clear with ease.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Chiefs vs. Chargers is always chaos, and the edge comes from jumping on the soft numbers before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe