Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL. 

This Super Bowl is set up for massive value on QB rushing props, elite TE production, and Philly’s run-heavy offense. If history, matchup data, and playoff usage trends hold, these lines are all mispriced, and we’re smashing value across the board.

The Super Bowl is so SOFT (if you know where to look) 👇 👇

• 2x Bankroll Builder: Low-risk plays designed for steady, consistent growth—ideal for building a solid betting foundation.

• 3x Triple Up: Moderately aggressive plays that balance higher returns with reasonable risk—perfect for stepping up your game.

I just posted 12 more bankroll builders for the Super Bowl… get in there!

Super Bowl LIX (PHI/KC)

NOTE: some of these numbers are alt lines, you can adjust on all the apps for more safety

Saquon Barkley: The Workhorse Play

Best lines: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

• Over 19.5 Longest Rush

• Over 19.5 Rush Attempts

• Over 0.5 Rush + Rec Touchdowns

Saquon Barkley is built for big moments, and the Eagles are going to lean on him heavily in this Super Bowl.

He leads the NFL in breakaway runs, clearing 19.5 yards on a single rush in 5 of his last 6 games. The Chiefs' defense has been vulnerable to explosive plays, allowing the third-most yards before contact per rush this postseason. We just saw James Cook and Joe Mixon gash them for 173 yards and three TDs in back-to-back games, and Barkley is a far superior runner.

But this isn’t just about explosiveness—it’s about volume. Barkley has had 20+ carries in five of his last seven games, and Philly runs the most rush-heavy offense in the league. His goal-line role is elite, and the Eagles are a team that pounds the rock near the end zone, which is why they tied an NFL playoff record with seven rushing TDs last week.

✅ Barkley has elite volume, explosiveness, and goal-line usage. He’s clearing these numbers.

Jalen Hurts: The Ultimate Dual-Threat QB

Best line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

• Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

• Over 7.5 Rush Attempts

• Over 0.5 Rush + Rec Touchdowns

• First Touchdown Scorer

Jalen Hurts is a postseason rushing MACHINE. He logged 15 carries in last year’s Super Bowl against this exact Chiefs defense and is averaging 9.3 rush attempts per playoff game.

The Chiefs blitz at a top-10 rate, meaning Hurts will be forced to run all night. That’s exactly why Josh Allen put up 72 yards on the ground last game, and Hurts is just as aggressive when attacking rushing lanes. The Tush Push is borderline unstoppable, making Hurts a goal-line cheat code with NINE postseason rushing TDs.

💡 Take Hurts’ first TD scorer prop—if Philly gets inside the 5, he’s keeping it.

Patrick Mahomes: Playoff Scramble King

Best line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet 

• Over 33.5 Pass Attempts

• Over 23.5 Pass Completions

• Over 19.5 Rushing Yards Ladder

• Over 4.5 Rush Attempts

Patrick Mahomes doesn’t just scramble more in the playoffs—he turns into a completely different runner when the stakes are highest. His scramble rate triples from 6% in the regular season to 15.2% in the playoffs, and he’s averaging 9 rush attempts per game this postseason.

Kansas City’s pass-heavy approach (2nd-highest neutral pass rate at 68.3%) ensures that volume won’t be an issue for Mahomes’ passing lines. The Eagles rank 3rd in pressure rate, meaning Mahomes WILL be forced out of the pocket. He’s gone over 4.5 rush attempts in every Super Bowl outside of one game where his O-line collapsed against Tampa Bay.

🔥 The Chiefs are running more designed QB runs, making these all smash plays.

Travis Kelce: The Super Bowl Target Hog

Best lines: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

• Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

• Over 5.5 Receptions

• Over 0.5 Rush + Rec Touchdowns

Mahomes always leans on Kelce in the biggest moments. He has never had fewer than six catches in a Super Bowl, with lines of 6, 10, 6, and 9 receptions across four appearances. And the matchup? PERFECT.

The Eagles give up the most yards per target (8.7 YPT) to tight ends and just allowed 14 catches for 138 yards to Washington’s backup tight ends in the NFC Championship.

But here’s the best part: Mahomes targets Kelce at a higher rate in the playoffs than in the regular season. When KC gets inside the 10? It’s Kelce time. He’s found the end zone in 20 of 24 career playoff games—making this the best TD bet on the board.

Dallas Goedert: The Overlooked Smash Play

Best lines: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

• Over 3.5 Receptions

• Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

The Chiefs’ defense has been TORCHED by tight ends all season, giving up the most adjusted receiving yards per game (57.0) to the position. Nearly every tight end target against them turns into a catch, as KC allows the highest adjusted completion rate to tight ends (79.3%).

Goedert has an elite 29% target-per-route-run rate since returning from injury, making him Hurts' primary safety valve underneath. He’s clearing both of these easily.

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Other Key Plays

✅ Xavier Worthy – Over 49.5 Receiving Yards & Over 4.5 Receptions – Worthy’s slot snaps have jumped to 60% recently, and the Eagles allow the 5th-most slot receiver yards over the last 10 games. His elite speed and short-area quickness give him a huge advantage against this coverage.

✅ DeVonta Smith – Over 59.5 Receiving Yards – Smith has dominated vs. the Chiefs, out-targeting A.J. Brown in their last two matchups. KC’s defense funnels targets inside, and Smith thrives against tight man coverage.

✅ Harrison Butker – Over 5.5 Kicking Points – Butker is as reliable as it gets, hitting 6+ points in 18 of 21 playoff games. The Eagles’ elite red-zone defense means more stalled drives, leading to multiple field goal opportunities.

✅ Samaje Perine – Over 14.5 Receiving Yards – Perine is Mahomes’ go-to checkdown option, running all of KC’s third-down routes. The Eagles' defense eliminates deep shots, forcing Mahomes to take what's given underneath.

✅ Kareem Hunt – Over 0.5 Rush + Rec Touchdowns – Hunt has taken 100% of goal-line touches since returning and leads the backfield in red-zone opportunities. The Eagles have struggled against power backs in short-yardage spots.

✅ Isiah Pacheco – Under 14.5 Longest Rush & Under 0.5 Rush + Rec Touchdowns – Pacheco’s explosive play rate has plummeted, and Hunt has fully taken over goal-line duties. Against a tough Eagles front, big plays won’t be there.

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