Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! So thankful for you all.

It’s time to tell you about something I’ve been working on behind the scenes for weeks 👇 👇

Why am I doing this…?

Already posted 8 Plays for Thanksgiving in VIP 👀

Alright enough already… let’s get into the picks!

EVERY NFL bet I took on Thanksgiving

NOTE: You can adjust with alt lines to get these numbers if they are bumped.

CHI @ DET

👇 D’ANDRE SWIFT: LESS THAN 59.5 RUSH YARDS

Best Line: (PrizePicks) | USE CODE: NFLARMY | find a book to straight bet

D’Andre Swift is walking into a BRUTAL matchup against Detroit’s elite rushing defense, and the numbers paint a clear picture of why this UNDER is the play. The Lions have allowed the 4TH-FEWEST adjusted rushing yards per game (90.0) to opposing backfields this season and are coming off a DOMINANT stretch where they completely shut down top-tier runners. Over the last three weeks, Detroit held Jonathan Taylor to just 35 yards, Travis Etienne to 27 yards, and Joe Mixon to 46 yards. These aren’t just ordinary backs—they’re some of the BEST in the league—and the Lions made them disappear.

But Swift isn’t exactly trending up, either. He’s averaged just 53 rushing yards per game over his last four outings, despite leading Chicago’s backfield in touches. His inefficiency is glaring, ranking in the 25TH PERCENTILE in adjusted yards per carry (3.91) and the 14TH PERCENTILE in yards after contact—making him one of the EASIEST runners to tackle in the league. Add to that the Bears’ projected 4TH-LOWEST run rate this week (37.2%) as 10.5-point underdogs, and Swift’s opportunities will be LIMITED in a game that forces Chicago to pass early and often.

So, against a Detroit defense that hasn’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher all season and consistently DOMINATES the line of scrimmage, this UNDER is a LOCK.

👇 JAMESON WILLIAMS: MORE THAN 2.5 RECEPTIONS

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Jameson Williams’ role in Detroit’s offense is EXPANDING at the perfect time, and this matchup against Chicago’s zone-heavy scheme plays directly into his strengths. Over the last three games, Williams has averaged 4 receptions per game, and his route participation has jumped to an ELITE 86.3%—a significant increase from last season. But it’s his dominance against zone coverage that makes this OVER feel like a LOCK. Chicago plays zone on 74.8% of passing snaps—the 6TH-HIGHEST rate in the league—and specifically runs Cover 3 on 42.8% of those plays (5TH-HIGHEST). Against Cover 3, Williams has been LIGHTS OUT, averaging 2.74 yards per route run, which leads all Detroit receivers.

The Lions are projected to lean on the passing game in this dome setting, where zero wind and controlled conditions historically boost passing efficiency. Williams is forecasted to see 6.3 targets this week, putting him in the 77TH PERCENTILE among wideouts. With the Bears struggling to contain receivers in zone looks, Williams’ upward trajectory and favorable matchup make this OVER TOO EASY.

👇 CALEB WILLIAMS: LESS THAN 1.5 PASSING TDS

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Caleb Williams faces an INSURMOUNTABLE challenge against Detroit’s secondary, and the numbers make it clear why this UNDER is the play. The Lions have yet to allow multiple passing touchdowns in a single game this season, locking down opponents with the FEWEST passing touchdowns per game (0.7). But it’s not just about preventing scores—it’s about making life MISERABLE for quarterbacks. Detroit ranks 3RD-BEST in adjusted completion rate allowed (65.9%), consistently forcing inefficiency through elite coverage and relentless pressure.

The Lions’ safeties have been the BEST unit in football at defending the pass, providing blanket coverage that limits explosive plays and shuts down the red zone. Meanwhile, the Bears are projected to run the 6TH-FEWEST plays this week due to their slow pace and Detroit’s ability to control possession. With LIMITED opportunities and a defense that has DOMINATED quarterbacks all season, Williams will struggle to find the end zone even once.

So, against a Detroit unit that has been the GOLD STANDARD in pass defense, this UNDER is as SAFE as it gets.

NOTE: I ALSO LIKE THE CALEB WILLIAMS RUSHING YARDS OVER.

NYG @ DAL

👇 Rico Dowdle: More Than 74.5 Rush + Rec Yards

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Rico Dowdle has taken over as the Cowboys' lead back, commanding a season-high 84.6% of backfield touches last week. This increased workload translated into 22 touches and 98 total yards, proving Dallas trusts him to anchor their rushing attack. BUT the matchup makes this projection even more enticing. The Giants have been TORCHED by running backs all season, surrendering the 2ND-MOST scrimmage yards per game (158.5) to the position and a league-worst 5.08 yards per carry.

This is a spot where Dallas can lean heavily on Dowdle, especially with Cooper Rush under center. The Cowboys run the 4TH-MOST plays per game (61.0), and the projected 132.1 offensive plays in this game (3RD-HIGHEST this week) create ample opportunities for Dowdle to dominate both on the ground and through the air. Additionally, the Giants' defense ranks 24TH in receiving points allowed to running backs, highlighting Dowdle’s ability to add yardage as a pass-catcher.

SO, with the perfect combination of volume, matchup, and game script, this number feels WAY TOO LOW. Dowdle’s dual-threat skill set against a defense hemorrhaging yards makes him a LOCK to CRUSH this projection.

👇 Tyrone Tracy: More Than 49.5 Rush Yards

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Tyrone Tracy has struggled with turnovers recently, but the Giants continue to feed him as their primary rusher, giving him 9+ carries in five consecutive games. His role is secure, but the real story here is the Cowboys’ glaring weakness in run defense. Dallas has been GASHED on the ground all season, allowing the 2ND-WORST adjusted yards per carry (5.55) and ranking 31ST in rushing points allowed per game to opposing backfields.

BUT it gets better—this game projects to see the 3RD-MOST offensive plays this week (132.1), and the Giants call the 6TH-MOST plays per game in the NFL. Tracy is locked into a high-volume script as New York’s run-heavy tendencies (7TH-HIGHEST run rate this season) should keep the ball in his hands. Dallas’ defensive tackles have been especially problematic, grading out as the 8TH-WORST group in run defense, further paving the way for Tracy to excel.

SO, against a defense that has struggled mightily to stop the run, Tracy has everything he needs to SMASH this projection. This matchup is BUILT for him to deliver, and with his volume secure, this is an EASY call.

👇 Malik Nabers: More Than 49.5 Rec Yards

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Malik Nabers continues to be the heart of the Giants’ passing game, commanding a massive 30% target share and 50% of air yards last week. Even with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, Nabers has proven his ability to deliver despite limited opportunities. BUT this matchup against Dallas is a DREAM SPOT for outside receivers like Nabers, who plays 78% of his snaps on the outside.

The Cowboys' secondary has been TORCHED all season, allowing the 4TH-MOST adjusted yards per target (9.02) and a 70.6% catch rate (30TH) to wide receivers. They’ve also been shredded in the open field, giving up the 5TH-MOST YAC (4.71 per reception) to wideouts. With perfect passing conditions inside the dome and a projected high-play volume game, Nabers is in prime position to EXPLODE.

SO, with Dallas’ safeties grading out as the 5TH-WORST unit in coverage and Nabers locked into a significant role, this number is WAY TOO LOW. He’s set to deliver in a matchup that perfectly suits his skill set and volume.

👇 CeeDee Lamb: More Than 5.5 Receptions

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CeeDee Lamb has been the epitome of consistency, racking up 12+ targets in six straight games and projecting for 9.6 targets this week. Even with Cooper Rush under center, Lamb remains the focal point of the Cowboys’ passing game. BUT the Giants have been a NIGHTMARE against lead wide receivers, allowing a 4TH-WORST adjusted completion rate (70.9%) and a league-high 10% touchdown rate to WR1s this season.

In their last matchup, Lamb DESTROYED the Giants with 7 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. The perfect conditions of playing in a dome this week only amplify his upside, as the Cowboys are projected to run the 3RD-MOST offensive plays of the slate (132.1). New York’s safeties also rank as the 9TH-WORST unit in coverage, creating even more room for Lamb to shine.

SO, with elite volume and a matchup that screams upside, this number is an EASY call. Lamb’s role as the go-to receiver ensures he will CRUSH this projection and continue his streak of dominance.

MIA @ GB

👇 Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 74.5 Rush + Rec Yards

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Jahmyr Gibbs has emerged as one of the NFL’s most efficient backs, ranking 3RD in yards per touch (6.4) and showcasing his ability to maximize every opportunity. With David Montgomery dealing with a shoulder injury, Gibbs handled an incredible 92% of backfield touches last week, a volume that makes this line highly achievable.

The Bears’ defense offers little resistance, allowing the 7TH-WORST efficiency vs. RBs this season (5.0 adjusted YPC) and 140.4 scrimmage yards per game to backfields (22ND). The Lions are also projected to be one of the 8TH-MOST run-heavy teams this week (44.9% run rate), ensuring Gibbs will get plenty of chances both on the ground and through the air.

So, whether Montgomery is limited or absent, Gibbs is set up to dominate against a vulnerable Bears defense. His efficiency, volume, and matchup make him a strong play to clear this line with ease.

👇 Jonnu Smith: MORE THAN 39.5 REC YARDS

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Jonnu Smith has become a focal point in the Dolphins' passing game, leading the team with a 20.8% target share since Week 8. His role is further emphasized by his elite efficiency, as he averages 2.18 yards per route run (85TH percentile) and has consistently performed in Tua Tagovailoa’s quick-hitting offensive system.

The Packers' defense has been a goldmine for tight ends, allowing the 3RD-MOST adjusted receiving yards per game (63.0) to the position. This matchup dynamic, combined with the Dolphins’ projected 5TH-MOST offensive plays this week (130.4), creates a scenario where Smith can easily surpass this line. His consistent usage, particularly in a pass-heavy game script, further cements his potential.

So, with a prime matchup and Smith’s growing role in the offense, this number feels too low. Expect him to deliver another big performance.

👇 Tyreek Hill: Over 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

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Tyreek Hill’s role as a scorer in the Dolphins’ offense has been undeniable, with 6 red-zone targets in his last 3 games. The Packers' defense presents a favorable matchup, having allowed a 7.7% touchdown rate to WR1s (23RD)—a glaring weakness that aligns perfectly with Hill’s skill set.

The Dolphins are expected to pass on 59.6% of their downs (9TH-HIGHEST this week), and with Miami ranking 2ND in points per drive since Week 8, the opportunities for Hill to find the end zone are plentiful. Whether it’s a deep shot or a quick red-zone strike, Hill’s versatility makes him a constant threat.

So, with high usage in scoring situations and a defense vulnerable to WR1s, Hill is a strong bet to find the end zone. His explosive ability and consistent involvement make this line highly achievable.

👇 Josh Jacobs: MORE THAN 69.5 RUSH YARDS

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Jacobs has been on a TEAR, crushing this number in five straight games while averaging 96 rushing yards per contest during that span. His ability to break tackles and create extra yardage has been ELITE—Jacobs ranks 2ND in the NFL in yards after contact per rush (3.58). BUT what makes this matchup even more enticing is Miami’s inefficiency in limiting running back production. The Dolphins have allowed the 29TH-MOST points per touch to RBs and rank 3RD in touchdown rate allowed to the position, underscoring their struggles against strong ground games.

Green Bay’s 4TH-MOST run-centric offense aligns perfectly with this game script, especially with temperatures expected to be in the 20s, which favors heavy rushing attacks. Miami’s defense has limited yards before contact (3RD-LOWEST at 0.74), BUT Jacobs’ ability to create chunk plays and fight through contact neutralizes that advantage. SO, with the Packers leaning heavily on the run and Jacobs in peak form, this number is WAY-TOO-LOW. He’s a high-floor, high-upside play—LOCK IT IN.

👇 Christian Watson: MORE THAN 19.5 LONGEST REC

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Watson has deep-ball potential that is unmatched on the Packers, averaging 18.2 air yards per target, the highest on the team. He draws 32.4% of his targets on throws of 20+ yards downfield, cementing his role as their premier deep threat. BUT what makes this matchup a must-play is Miami’s vulnerability to big plays—their defense has allowed the 29TH-HIGHEST catch rate on deep passes to WRs, a glaring weakness against receivers like Watson.

With Romeo Doubs likely sidelined, Watson’s target share is projected to increase, giving him even more opportunities to exploit Miami’s defense. Green Bay’s offensive line, ranked 4TH-BEST in pass protection, ensures Jordan Love will have the time to connect on deep throws. Watson narrowly missed a long reception last week with a dropped pass, BUT this matchup offers the perfect chance for redemption. SO, with a favorable defensive matchup and Watson’s elite deep-threat ability, this number is a COMPLETE LAYUP.

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