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• CHI @ DET breakdown

It’s Thanksgiving Week… and it’s time to tell you about something I’ve been working on behind the scenes for weeks 👇 👇

Why am I doing this…?

The 3 best early bets in every game

CHI @ DET

👇 J. Williams: O 45.5 rec yards

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Jameson Williams has emerged as a key deep-threat weapon for the Lions, with his role growing significantly since returning from suspension. He’s cleared 50 receiving yards in three straight games, averaging 80 yards per contest during that stretch. BUT the real edge lies in how his skills match the Bears’ defensive scheme. Chicago plays zone coverage on 74.8% of passing snaps—the 6TH-MOST in the NFL—and heavily favors Cover 3 looks (5TH-MOST), where Williams DOMINATES with 2.74 yards per route run, the BEST on the team. While the Bears have allowed the FEWEST fantasy points to wide receivers this season, their scheme struggles to contain explosive plays, as seen last week when Jordan Addison went off against them. SO, with Williams seeing his targets increase steadily (5 → 6 → 7 in his last three games), and his efficiency perfectly suited to exploit Chicago’s weaknesses, this number feels WAY-TOO-LOW. Expect Williams to CRUSH this projection.

NYG @ DAL

👇 R. Dowdle: O 59.5 rush yards

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Rico Dowdle is quietly taking over the Cowboys’ backfield, and his recent production shows he’s ready to deliver in a big way. Over the past two weeks, Dowdle has handled 29 carries to Zeke’s 4, cementing himself as Dallas’ clear lead option on the ground. BUT it’s the matchup that makes this pick so appealing—the Giants rank DEAD LAST in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.2 YPC) and give up the 2ND-MOST total yards to backfields at 153.5 per game. The Cowboys are heavy favorites, meaning the game script is likely to favor a run-heavy approach to control the clock. Last week, Dowdle ran for 86 yards on 19 carries against a tougher Washington front, showing his ability to thrive in volume-based situations. SO, with a cake matchup against a New York defense that has been repeatedly GASSED by opposing running backs, Dowdle is a LOCK to clear this number with ease.B

👇 J. Jacobs: O 69.5 rush yards

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Josh Jacobs is in the zone right now, having CRUSHED this projection in five consecutive games while averaging a dominant 96 rushing yards during that span. BUT the Dolphins’ defensive inefficiency against running backs makes this an even safer pick—they rank 29TH in points allowed per touch to the position, consistently giving up chunk plays. Last week, Jacobs forced 11 missed tackles—the MOST by any player this season—which aligns perfectly with Miami’s struggles to limit extra yardage. The Packers have leaned heavily on Jacobs, giving him 26 carries in Week 12, highlighting his workhorse role. SO, with Jacobs consistently producing at an elite level and Miami offering little resistance to efficient runners, this number feels WAY TOO LOW. Expect Jacobs to DOMINATE on volume and matchup once again.

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Thanksgiving TD Parlay

#8

👇 R. Odunze: U O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Rome Odunze has seen consistent targets in recent weeks, but his matchup against Detroit is as tough as it gets. The Lions’ secondary ranks 1ST in limiting WR touchdowns, allowing a league-low 2.4% touchdown rate to wideouts. But it doesn’t stop there: Detroit has also surrendered the FEWEST adjusted yards per target to outside receivers this season and just one touchdown on deep passes of 20+ yards all year. The Bears’ offense compounds the problem, with the LOWEST implied team total on the Thanksgiving slate at just 19 points as massive road underdogs. SO, with Odunze facing a lockdown secondary and limited scoring opportunities in a slow-paced offense, this pick feels like a CLEAR FADE.

#7

👇 D.J. Moore: U O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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D.J. Moore’s explosiveness is undeniable, but this matchup is BRUTAL. Detroit’s secondary ranks 1ST in the league in limiting WR touchdowns, allowing a 2.4% TD rate to wideouts, and has given up the FEWEST adjusted yards per target to receivers this season. But here’s the kicker: the Lions have surrendered only one touchdown on deep passes of 20+ yards all year, neutralizing Moore’s big-play potential. Add in the Bears’ LOWEST implied team total on the Thanksgiving slate at just 19 points, and it’s hard to envision Moore breaking through. SO, against an elite secondary and in a game with minimal scoring upside, Moore’s chances of finding the end zone are nearly zero.

#6

👇 C. Lamb: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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CeeDee Lamb is in a PRIME spot to deliver this week. The Giants’ defense has been torched by WR1s all season, allowing the HIGHEST touchdown rate in the league at 10.9%. Lamb is projected to see 9.7 targets this week, ranking in the 98TH PERCENTILE for WR volume, and his versatility makes him a nightmare for New York’s 7TH-WORST safety group, which has consistently allowed explosive plays. With Dallas projected to run the 5TH-MOST plays on the slate (66.6), and in a dome environment where passing efficiency thrives, Lamb is set up to take full advantage of this dream matchup. SO, with elite volume, a soft secondary, and favorable game conditions, Lamb finding the end zone feels like a LOCK.

#5

👇 C. Watson: U 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Christian Watson’s scoring drought continues, as he’s failed to find the end zone in three straight games despite red-zone targets. But this matchup makes a turnaround highly unlikely: the Dolphins allow the FEWEST receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, including just a 3% touchdown rate to outside WRs (8TH-BEST in the league). Miami’s secondary has been ELITE in limiting production, ranking 5TH-BEST in adjusted yards per target to opposing wideouts. On the other side, Watson’s own inefficiency is glaring—his air yards per game have dropped from 98.0 last year to just 61.0 this season, and Green Bay’s offense is the 7TH-SLOWEST in neutral pace, further capping his opportunities. SO, in a matchup against one of the TOUGHEST secondaries in the league, Watson’s scoring potential is almost nonexistent.

#4

👇 D. Wicks: U 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Dontayvion Wicks has shown flashes of potential but remains a low-volume option in Green Bay’s slow-paced, run-heavy offense. The Packers are projected to pass at just a 55.2% rate this week—the 4TH-LOWEST in the NFL—and operate at the 7TH-SLOWEST neutral pace in the league. But even if Wicks sees targets, Miami’s defense is a nightmare for wide receivers, allowing the FEWEST receiving touchdowns to WRs and holding outside wideouts to a mere 3% touchdown rate (8TH-BEST). Over his last three games, Wicks has been targeted on just 12.3% of his routes, highlighting his limited role in the offense. SO, against a defense that erases WR scoring chances, and in an offense unlikely to prioritize him, Wicks hitting pay dirt feels nearly impossible.

#3

👇 J. Jacobs: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Josh Jacobs has been on an absolute tear, scoring 3 touchdowns last week while forcing 11 missed tackles—the MOST in any game this season. He’s the centerpiece of Green Bay’s offense, handling nearly 19 carries per game, ranking in the 98TH PERCENTILE among all running backs. But here’s where it gets even better: the Dolphins’ defense has allowed the 5TH-MOST touchdowns to running backs this season and multiple rushing scores in two of their last four games. Miami’s inability to stop physical runners is glaring, as they rank outside the top 20 in yards after contact allowed. Combine that with Jacobs’ dominance in the red zone, and his role becomes even more critical with Green Bay projected to have one of the highest-scoring offenses on Thanksgiving—trailing only Detroit’s 29.5-point implied total. SO, with Jacobs set to SMASH in a favorable game script against a struggling Miami front, this pick feels like an OBVIOUS LOCK.

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Game 1 (Bears @ Lions)

#5

👇 D. Swift: U 59.5 rush yards

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D’Andre Swift is walking into a BRUTAL matchup against Detroit’s elite rushing defense, and the numbers paint a clear picture of why this UNDER is the play. The Lions have allowed the 4TH-FEWEST adjusted rushing yards per game (90.0) to opposing backfields this season and are coming off a DOMINANT stretch where they completely shut down top-tier runners. Over the last three weeks, Detroit held Jonathan Taylor to just 35 yards, Travis Etienne to 27 yards, and Joe Mixon to 46 yards. These aren’t just ordinary backs—they’re some of the BEST in the league—and the Lions made them disappear.

But Swift isn’t exactly trending up, either. He’s averaged just 53 rushing yards per game over his last four outings, despite leading Chicago’s backfield in touches. His inefficiency is glaring, ranking in the 25TH PERCENTILE in adjusted yards per carry (3.91) and the 14TH PERCENTILE in yards after contact—making him one of the EASIEST runners to tackle in the league. Add to that the Bears’ projected 4TH-LOWEST run rate this week (37.2%) as 10.5-point underdogs, and Swift’s opportunities will be LIMITED in a game that forces Chicago to pass early and often.

So, against a Detroit defense that hasn’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher all season and consistently DOMINATES the line of scrimmage, this UNDER is a LOCK.

#4

👇 C. Williams: U 1.5 Pass TDs

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Caleb Williams faces an INSURMOUNTABLE challenge against Detroit’s secondary, and the numbers make it clear why this UNDER is the play. The Lions have yet to allow multiple passing touchdowns in a single game this season, locking down opponents with the FEWEST passing touchdowns per game (0.7). But it’s not just about preventing scores—it’s about making life MISERABLE for quarterbacks. Detroit ranks 3RD-BEST in adjusted completion rate allowed (65.9%), consistently forcing inefficiency through elite coverage and relentless pressure.

The Lions’ safeties have been the BEST unit in football at defending the pass, providing blanket coverage that limits explosive plays and shuts down the red zone. Meanwhile, the Bears are projected to run the 6TH-FEWEST plays this week due to their slow pace and Detroit’s ability to control possession. With LIMITED opportunities and a defense that has DOMINATED quarterbacks all season, Williams will struggle to find the end zone even once.

So, against a Detroit unit that has been the GOLD STANDARD in pass defense, this UNDER is as SAFE as it gets.

#3

👇 K. Allen: O 39.5 rec yards

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Keenan Allen is a SLOT MACHINE, and this matchup against Detroit’s defense plays directly into his skill set. The Lions are elite at shutting down outside receivers, allowing just 6.8 yards per target to wideouts on the perimeter—ranking 3RD-BEST in the NFL. But they’re a completely different story in the slot, where they rank 25TH, giving up 8.6 yards per target. Allen thrives in this role, operating almost exclusively as Chicago’s slot receiver, and the numbers back his chances to EXPLODE in this matchup.

Detroit’s defense has been TORCHED by wideouts all season, allowing the 2ND-MOST adjusted receiving yards per game (176.0). They also give up the 3RD-MOST pass attempts per game (38.5), creating high-volume opportunities for receivers. Chicago’s offense is projected to pass on 62.8% of their plays this week—the 4TH-HIGHEST rate on the slate—further emphasizing Allen’s importance in their game plan.

So, with Detroit’s slot struggles and Allen’s consistent ability to command targets, this OVER feels WAY TOO LOW for a player of his caliber.

#2

👇 D. Montgomery: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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David Montgomery is the HEART of Detroit’s ground attack, and he’s set up perfectly to capitalize in this PRIME matchup. The Lions are massive 10.5-point home favorites, which makes them one of the MOST run-heavy teams on the slate with a projected 44.9% run rate. But it’s not just game script—it’s efficiency and opportunity that put Montgomery in a position to THRIVE. He commands 47.3% of Detroit’s rushing workload, ranking in the 83RD PERCENTILE for rush attempts among all running backs. And when he touches the ball, he produces—Montgomery ranks in the 78TH PERCENTILE with 4.84 adjusted yards per carry, showcasing his ability to maximize every run.

But the matchup is what seals the deal. Chicago’s defense has been a GIFT to running backs all season, allowing 5.00 yards per carry (7TH-WORST in the NFL) and giving up touchdowns to running backs on 52.9% of their scores—the 3RD-HIGHEST rate in the league. Detroit also owns the HIGHEST team total this week at 29.5 points, signaling multiple scoring opportunities for Montgomery in the red zone.

So, with elite efficiency, heavy volume, and a dream matchup against a defense that BLEEDS production to backs, Montgomery finding the end zone feels INEVITABLE.

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