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- ✅ 🏈 Early Monday Night Football Picks (Jets @ 49ers)
✅ 🏈 Early Monday Night Football Picks (Jets @ 49ers)
We're on a 6-1 run so far in Week 1
Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.
Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.
Speaking of WINNING, we’re off to a great start in Week 1 hitting 6 of 7 picks!
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Enough is enough, you have all your Week 1 picks… but we still need to get you set for Monday Night Football.

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MNF Picks (Jets @ 49ers)

#5
👇 B. Hall: U 15.5 rush att
Best Line: (Underdog) (PrizePicks) | (BetMGM) (Caesars) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
The Jets are 5.5-point underdogs, and my model projects them to run the 4th-fewest plays this week, heavily limiting Hall's rushing opportunities. Facing the 49ers’ elite defense, which allows the 2nd-fewest adjusted rushing yards to running backs over their last 10 games, Hall is in for a tough matchup. Adding to that, the 49ers have also forced opposing teams into passing situations, limiting rushing volume.
#4
👇 D. Samuel: O 46.5 rec yards
Best Line: (Underdog) (Betr) | (DraftKings) | USE CODE: NFLARMY
The Jets run Cover-4 at the 2nd-highest rate in the league, a scheme where Deebo Samuel thrives. When facing zone coverage, he commands an impressive 33.8% target share, the highest on the team, and has averaged 3.53 yards per route run—5th-best in the NFL. The Jets' defensive scheme plays directly into Deebo’s strengths, as he excels in creating yards after the catch in space, a key factor when teams play zone. With his versatility and involvement in both passing and running games, expect Deebo to surpass 46.5 yards with ease, potentially early in the game.
#3
👇 B. Aiyuk: U 10.0 fantasy points
Aiyuk’s outside role faces a tough challenge in this matchup. The Jets’ defense allows the fewest touchdowns to outside receivers and holds opponents to just a 43% completion rate on passes of 10+ yards downfield, where Aiyuk sees 60% of his targets. While Aiyuk has been efficient, this Jets defense thrives in limiting big plays and keeping wide receivers in check, especially in zone coverage. With Deebo and McCaffrey likely absorbing more targets in the short-to-intermediate range, Aiyuk’s opportunities will be limited, capping his upside and making it difficult for him to reach double-digit fantasy points.
#2
👇 C. McCaffrey: O 36.5 rec yards
McCaffrey is a matchup nightmare for any defense, and the Jets are no exception. They allow the 7th-most receiving yards to running backs, and what makes this even more favorable is McCaffrey’s heavy usage in the passing game. Running routes on 80.9% of passing plays, CMC is a reliable option when the 49ers need to check down, especially when facing a defense like the Jets that will likely limit deep passing opportunities. With San Francisco expected to exploit short-to-intermediate routes, McCaffrey’s receiving volume will be significant, making him a strong bet to exceed 36.5 yards.
What did you think of today's picks? ✅ |