PHI @ KC

A Super Bowl rematch in broad daylight. Eagles vs. Chiefs is packed with star power, and I’ve found the one number the market missed… in two minutes or less.

#5 - S. Barkley: U 22.5 Rushing Attempts

The Chiefs forced the 8TH-FEWEST rushing attempts in 2024, making it one of the toughest spots for any running back to rack up volume. Barkley managed just 18 carries in Week 1 against a Cowboys defense that was one of the WORST against the run, which is concerning because that should have been his easiest matchup of the month. But this week, the context shifts even more as the Eagles traded two picks for Tank Bigsby, a clear move to lighten Barkley’s load and keep him fresh long-term. So with Kansas City already limiting rushing attempts and Barkley’s own team signaling reduced usage, expecting him to clear 20 carries here feels like a stretch, making less than 19.5 attempts the obvious side.

#4 - D. Smith: O 44.5 Receiving yards

The Chiefs’ secondary just got torched for 318 passing yards in Week 1, the 3RD-WORST mark of the week, and it wasn’t just one receiver doing damage. Four different Chargers receivers cleared this exact projection, showing how spread out and vulnerable the coverage truly is. But here’s the key: Smith already put up 69 yards in last year’s Super Bowl against this same defense, proving he can beat them on the biggest stage. So with Kansas City giving up volume all over the field and Smith’s proven ability to produce against them, this 44.5 number feels way too low and sets up as a strong play for more.

#3 - K. Hunt: O 22.5 Rushing Yards

Kareem Hunt quietly matched Isaiah Pacheco in touches during Week 1, which tells us he’s still carved out a real role in this backfield. The matchup now swings heavily in his favor as the Eagles allowed the 6TH-HIGHEST yards per carry last week, getting gashed for 119 rushing yards by the Cowboys’ running backs, a backfield that isn’t exactly elite. If Dallas could shred them with a committee, Hunt should be in line for easy efficiency on limited carries. So with touches already secure and Philadelphia’s run defense showing cracks immediately, more than 22.5 rushing yards is a lock.

#2 - H. Brown: U 6.5 Receptions

Hollywood Brown piled up 10 catches in Week 1, but that came with Xavier Worthy sidelined and Worthy is still out. While that volume looks impressive, it came in a situation where defenses couldn’t game plan for him as the focal point. This week, the Eagles get their shot, and that’s a problem: they allowed the 2ND-FEWEST receiving yards in 2024 and the 7TH-FEWEST receptions. Brown already struggled against this same unit in last year’s Super Bowl, managing just two catches, showing how tough this matchup really is. So with Philly locking down receivers at a top-tier level and now able to key in directly on Brown, less than 5.5 receptions makes perfect sense.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One marquee matchup, one market miss—attack it before this Super Bowl rematch takes over Sunday.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe