Way-Too-Early NFL Week 1 Picks

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Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

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#5

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The Colts are expected to run one of the fastest-paced offenses... but they're also facing a Texans' defense was TORCHED last season, giving up the 6th-most adjusted passing yards per game.

#4

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Commanders are expected to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league. But they also get the Bucs' defensive ends... the worst in the NFL at containing the edges, which is critical for stopping running QBs. So this is just a bad number

#3

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20.5 completions might seem reasonable, but he's up against a Cowboys defense that allowed the 2nd-fewest pass attempts and the 4th-lowest completion percentage last season. So, with the Browns projected to be one of the most run-heavy offenses this week, lower is the play.

#2

Best Line: (Sleeper) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

The Colts will likely lean on him even more because Josh Downs is banged up, so this number is a lock to get bumped before kickoff.

Week 1 (Way-Too-Early) Bets ATS

Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars

Miami thrives in early-season home games. But, it's the sweltering heat—specifically, when it tops 80 degrees—that gives them the edge. Tua Tagovailoa is 15-3 straight up in these conditions. Jacksonville has a history of road struggles. Trevor Lawrence is the least profitable road QB since 2021. So, the Dolphins will cover at home.

Jets +4.5 @ 49ers

History isn’t kind to Super Bowl losers in Week 1—they're just 5-19 ATS since 2000. But, it gets worse. The 49ers have lost seven straight games at home against the spread. Without Trent Williams, they've struggled to score. So, with Aaron Rodgers on a 10-game Monday Night Football win streak, the Jets are set to cover this spread.

Packers +2.5 @ Eagles

Matt LaFleur's Packers have thrived as underdogs, covering 22 of 32 times. But, Jalen Hurts is the least profitable QB as a road favorite over the last 20 years.