DAL @ NYJ

America’s Team meets New York grit. Cowboys vs. Jets brings big-time value, and here are the edges I’m targeting… in two minutes or less.

#5 - J. Fields: O 188.5 Passing Yards

Justin Fields has been labeled as volatile, but when the matchup tilts in his favor, he delivers. Last week, he went for 226 passing yards on 74% completions, and what’s even more impressive is that 116 of those came in the 4th quarter alone, showing his ability to pile up yards quickly.

The real story here is the Cowboys defense, which has been the most generous unit to quarterbacks this season, allowing the most passing yards per game and the most fantasy points at 21.9. Every single quarterback they’ve faced has finished as a top-8 fantasy scorer, meaning it’s not just one bad game, it’s a consistent leak. Jordan Love is the freshest example, torching Dallas for 337 yards, exposing the exact same weakness Fields gets to attack. While Fields’ reputation is built on his legs, this projection is too soft for a defense that has been destroyed through the air all season. With a rising floor and the league’s most QB-friendly matchup, Fields clearing 188.5 is as close to inevitable as it gets.

#4 - D. Prescott: O 22.5 Completions

Dak Prescott is in the middle of one of the most dominant passing stretches we’ve seen all season. He leads the entire NFL in completions (121) and has gone over 30 in three straight games, showing not just volume but consistency. But this isn’t just about attempts, it’s about efficiency. Dak currently ranks 1st in the NFL in completion rate over expectation (+8.9%), proving he’s delivering accuracy beyond what the defense gives him.

Even against the Jets, who try to slow the game’s tempo, efficiency keeps driving production because their secondary is still giving up 7.5 yards per attempt and a top-10 touchdown rate allowed. When you combine elite accuracy, league-leading volume, and a matchup that quietly bleeds efficiency, 23 completions feels like the absolute floor. This projection is too low, and it makes Dak one of the strongest locks on the slate.

#3 - B. Hall: O 59.5 Rushing Yards

Breece Hall finally looks like the workhorse everyone’s been waiting for. Last week, he logged 19 touches for 111 yards, proving both efficiency and volume in the same game. With Braelon Allen sidelined, his role expands even further into a true feature-back workload without competition.

This is also the perfect matchup to ride him. Dallas just gave up 130 rushing yards to Packers running backs, and they’ve been quietly bleeding production on the ground all season. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency against RB carries, allowing first downs or touchdowns on 28.9 percent of attempts. That’s not an outlier, that’s a consistent liability. When you give Hall a featured role and line him up against a defense that’s routinely gashed by opposing backfields, 60 yards is a projection that feels like it shouldn’t even exist. This is one of the clearest RB overs of the week, and Hall is built to smash it.

#2 - J. Ferguson: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson is quietly operating like one of the most reliable tight ends in football. He’s already up to 34 catches (TE2 in the league) and owns a 23.4 percent target share, which puts him in true WR-level usage territory. Last week, he hauled in 7 catches, showing how frequently Dak leans on him in key spots.

The reason this week is even better is because of coverage matchups. If Sauce Gardner shadows Dallas’ WR1s, Dak naturally funnels targets toward his safety valve in Ferguson. That lines up perfectly with how the Jets defend tight ends, because this defense has allowed the worst touchdown rate in the NFL to the position at 11.1 percent, which signals consistent vulnerability. Between Ferguson’s weekly volume, his growing red-zone usage, and a coverage matchup that forces Dak to keep feeding him, 30 yards isn’t just reachable, it’s a locked-in floor play. This number is too low for how involved he is in this offense.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Cowboys–Jets could flip on one play, lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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