DAL @ CHI

Big brands, big stakes. Cowboys vs. Bears is the next headline matchup, and I’ve locked in my top edge… in two minutes or less.

#5 - D. Moore: O 44.5 Receiving yards

D.J. Moore remains the engine of this passing attack, running a route on 96% of dropbacks (97TH PERCENTILE) and consistently producing with 61 receiving yards per game since last season. The real edge comes from Dallas’s inability to contain wide receivers. They’ve allowed the 2ND-MOST yards per target and the 5TH-MOST adjusted receiving yards per game to WRs since last year.

Just last week, they got smoked for 450 receiving yards by the Giants, with three different wideouts clearing this exact projection. Moore is forecasted for 7+ targets (82ND PERCENTILE) in this matchup, and his efficiency has leveled up this year to 10.5 yards per target, backed by 89TH PERCENTILE yards-after-the-catch ability. With elite usage, a historically weak secondary, and recent proof that they can’t contain receivers, Moore going MORE THAN 49.5 is one of the strongest plays of the slate.

#4 - D. Swift: O 39.5 Rushing Yards

D’Andre Swift has fully seized control of this backfield, commanding 61% of Chicago’s carries, a workload that ranks in the 91ST PERCENTILE among all running backs. The matchup makes this pop. Dallas has been gashed on the ground, allowing the 4TH-MOST rushing yards in football since last year, with their linebackers grading as the 2ND-WORST unit against the run.

Chicago is projected for the 4TH-MOST total plays of the week, and Swift is forecasted for 16+ carries (87TH PERCENTILE), which is workhorse usage. He’s already averaging 58 rushing yards per game this season, clearing this projection without even factoring in Dallas’s defensive weakness. With volume, matchup, and efficiency all lining up, Swift going MORE THAN 39.5 feels like one of the most OBVIOUS plays on the board.

#3 - C. Williams: O 229.5 Passing Yards

Caleb Williams has yet to hit this projection all year, stuck at just 208 passing yards per game, which is already well below the number we’re being offered. But the matchup makes this even tougher. The Cowboys have forced opposing QBs into the 6TH-FEWEST pass attempts per game since last season, choking volume at the source.

On top of that, Williams is struggling with accuracy, ranking with the 7TH-LOWEST completion rate in the league, meaning even when he does get opportunities, he isn’t converting them into yards. This is a collision of low efficiency and low volume against one of the NFL’s most suffocating pass defenses. Clearing 232.5 would require a complete outlier performance, and the UNDER is the clear, data-backed side.

#2 - D. Prescott: O 1.5 Pass Touchdowns

This game is projected to be one of the highest-volume spots of the week, with 132 total offensive plays expected, the 3RD-MOST of any game on the slate. Dallas already runs the 2ND-MOST plays per game in football since last season, and now they face a Chicago defense that has quietly been one of the most vulnerable units in the league. The Bears have allowed the 2ND-MOST adjusted yards per target and the 2ND-MOST yards after the catch to opposing pass-catchers since last year, with their safeties grading as the 2ND-WORST coverage group in football.

That kind of matchup sets up perfectly for Dak Prescott, who is projected for nearly 36 pass attempts, ranking 8TH among all QBs this week. He’s been highly efficient in this stretch, averaging 251 adjusted passing yards per game (83RD PERCENTILE) and improving his adjusted completion rate to 68.6% this season. With elite volume, improved accuracy, and a defense that bleeds efficiency to the pass, Prescott is primed to throw for multiple scores. MORE THAN 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like one of the strongest plays on the board.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Cowboys–Bears could swing fast—lock in these edges before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA