Christmas Day Locks

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#5 - J. Williams: O 75.5 Rush Yards

Javonte Williams has already proven this matchup tilts heavily toward the run, and the structure still favors production.

• Commanders allow the 3RD-MOST rushing yards to running backs this season
• Washington ranks 29TH in rushing points allowed to backfields
• Williams ran for 116 rushing yards vs Washington earlier this year

If Williams is active, this defense has shown all season that efficiency alone is enough, making 75.5 a very reachable number.

#4 - J. Gibbs: O 73.5 Rush Yards

Jahmyr Gibbs’ efficiency has dipped, but his role and the matchup now force volume to the ground.

• Vikings allow the most running back touches per game this season
• Minnesota is a run funnel, with opponents throwing 3.3% below expectation, the 2ND-lowest rate in the NFL
• Gibbs has played 72.1% of snaps and handled 69.5% of backfield touches since Week 10

When the defense invites carries and Gibbs owns the backfield, 72.5 clears on workload alone. My #1 pick on the Christmas slate in another RB who’s looking to find the end-zone for the 12th time. 

#3 - D. Montgomery: O 32.5 Rush Yards

David Montgomery’s usage is game-script dependent, and this matchup naturally creates rushing volume.

• Minnesota forces the most rushing attempts in the NFL
• When Detroit plays from ahead, Montgomery jumps to 45% of snaps and 41.2% of backfield touches
• Montgomery logged 40 rushing yards in the prior meeting with Minnesota

With the Vikings consistently pushing opponents into run-heavy scripts, this number clears with limited touches.

#2 - A. St. Brown: O 78.5 Rec Yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn’t just beat Minnesota, the scheme actively funnels production to him.

• St. Brown has averaged 107 receiving yards per game vs Minnesota over his last 5 matchups
• Vikings play two-high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (68.4%)
• Against two-high, St. Brown owns a 33% target rate and 2.86 yards per route run

When coverage structure and usage align this cleanly, 76.5 sits well below his historical output.

#1 - R. Harvey: O 0.5 Total TDs

RJ Harvey’s scoring isn’t fluky, it’s been consistent and role-driven.

• Harvey has scored 5 touchdowns over his last 4 games
• He ranks RB5 in actual scoring and RB6 in expected points per game over that span
• Kansas City just allowed 208 total yards and 2 touchdowns to the Titans backfield

When a back is converting touches into touchdowns at a top-five rate, one score becomes the baseline outcome.

That’s the list. Christmas football always delivers surprises, and the edge comes from spotting the right numbers before kickoff

-Joe

P.S. These picks stay free because of partners like ProphetX. I only work with platforms I actually use and trust. Code HOLKA = 20% match up to $100.