CHI @ PHI

The Black Friday spotlight is in Philly. Bears vs. Eagles might look one-sided, but the data says there’s real value on this matchup… in two minutes or less

#5 - J. Hurts: O 29.5 Longest Completion

Hurts has hit this in 6 of his last 7 games, posting 27 completions on 39 attempts for 289 yards last week with a season-high 30.9 fantasy points. Against man coverage, he’s been elite, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt (3RD-BEST) and a 16.2 percent touchdown rate (2ND-HIGHEST) in the NFL.
But Chicago’s defense opens every window. The Bears rank 27TH in yards per attempt allowed (7.6), 28TH in completion rate (68.5 percent), and 30TH in pressure rate (29.8 percent) over their last five games. That clean-pocket advantage directly fuels Hurts’ deep-ball accuracy between the numbers (34.9 percent of throws there, one of the league’s lowest rates).
So with top-three efficiency against man coverage and a bottom-five defense in every passing metric, one vertical shot over 29.5 yards feels inevitable.

#4 - D. Smith: O 14.5 Longest Reception

Smith has CLEARED this number in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 5 receptions and 68.5 yards (WR12) with 2.09 yards per route run (WR18). His recent 41-yard grab showed his big-play ceiling remains intact.
But the matchup is a dream for explosives. The Bears allow the 27TH-MOST yards per attempt (7.6) and a 68.5 percent completion rate (28TH) while playing man coverage on 30.6 percent of snaps (7TH-HIGHEST). Hurts, meanwhile, ranks 3RD-BEST in yards per attempt vs man (8.3) and 2ND in TD rate (16.2 percent), feeding precisely the routes Smith wins on.
So with a coverage style built for his skill set and a quarterback shredding those looks, one deep cross or post should EASILY cash this projection.

#3 - R. Odunze: U 5.5 Receptions

Odunze has missed this mark in back-to-back games, including a 3-for-9 outing last week, and his accuracy metrics have collapsed with 26.5 percent of targets since Week 5 inaccurate (HIGHEST rate among WRs with similar volume).
But the coverage he draws is elite. Rookie Quinyon Mitchell has allowed just a 44.6 percent catch rate (3RD-BEST) and zero touchdowns in coverage. The Eagles defense as a whole ranks 2ND-BEST in yards per target allowed, 2ND-LOWEST catch rate (55.5 percent), and 2ND in points per target (1.47) to receivers.
So when you combine quarterback inaccuracy with one of the NFL’s tightest secondaries, Odunze’s volume and efficiency are both capped, making under 5.5 receptions the CLEAR edge.

#2 - C. Loveland: U 49.5 Receiving Yards

Loveland ran a route on 70.3 percent of dropbacks last week, his highest rate with Cole Kmet active, and produced 49 yards with a 12-yard touchdown. That volume is noteworthy, but this matchup is a brick wall. The Eagles allow the 2ND-FEWEST yards per game to tight ends and a LEAGUE-LOW 5.0 yards per target, with a 60.6 percent catch rate (2ND-LOWEST) and a 2.8 percent TD rate (3RD-LOWEST).
But beyond the numbers, Philadelphia’s scheme funnels short check-downs and eliminates intermediate lanes where Loveland operates. Even consistent TE1s have failed to reach 40 yards against this coverage.
So even with his routes up sharply, Loveland is staring at the worst statistical matchup possible, and this number is WAY TOO HIGH.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Bears vs. Eagles starts the weekend early, so lock in these edges before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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