Week 11 Locks

Week 11 is here. I’ve dug through every matchup and found the safest numbers the market got wrong… in two minutes or less

#6 - J. Waddle: O 19.5 Longest Reception

Jaylen Waddle keeps delivering explosive plays in this offense, grabbing 5 of 7 targets for 84 yards on Sunday and ripping off a 38-yard score that once again highlighted his big-play role. He now has a 30 plus yard catch in four of his last six games, and that trend matters because this number is built entirely around whether he can break another chunk gain. But Washington has been one of the softest secondaries in football, allowing the third most yards per target to opposing WR1s and ranking in the bottom three in points allowed per target to wide receivers over their recent stretch, a perfect setup for deep shots to hit.

So with Waddle’s explosive profile and a defense that consistently gives up big plays to top receivers, this projection sits way too low for the type of damage he’s been doing downfield.

#5 - J. Herbert: O 219.5 Pass Yards

Justin Herbert is quietly putting together one of the more consistent passing stretches in the league, averaging 276 yards over his last five games even while the offense leaned on a quick passing approach with Joe Alt out. The key here is that Herbert continues to produce even when his average depth of target dips because he is still operating in high volume scripts. But Jacksonville has become the biggest pass funnel in the NFL, facing the third most pass attempts, blitzing at a top three rate, and still generating only middle tier pressure, which is exactly the type of defensive look Herbert has shredded this year.

They have allowed five straight QB1 weeks, including Mahomes, Stafford, Geno Smith, and Davis Mills, while giving up 7.4 yards per attempt and a top five touchdown rate over their last five games. So with volume guaranteed and the Jaguars consistently getting beat in this exact matchup profile, 219.5 is a projection Herbert is set to clear.

#4 - A. Rodgers: O 209.5 Pass Yards

Aaron Rodgers has not attacked deep as often this season, but this is the one matchup where he already flashed his ceiling. He shredded Cincinnati for 250 yards and four touchdowns in Week 7, posting his highest air yards performance of the season. That game confirmed that this defense brings out his best because they struggle to generate consistent pressure and regularly allow quarterbacks to hit their best games against them. But the Bengals have only collapsed further since that first meeting, allowing a QB1 scorer in six of their last seven games and ranking in the bottom three in passing production allowed during that span.

They also produced the lowest pressure rate of that entire week when they faced Rodgers, and they remain without their top pass rusher, leaving the same weaknesses on the table. So with a proven track record against this defense and the matchup still trending in his favor, this projection sits too low for his ceiling in this spot.

#3 - W. Marks: O 59.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Woody Marks finally stepped into a full workhorse role, playing a season high 80 percent of snaps, running a route on over half the dropbacks, and turning 16 touches into 81 yards and a touchdown in his best usage game of the year. That workload lines up perfectly with how this matchup sets up for him. But the Titans have been one of the most vulnerable defenses to running backs all season, allowing the third most total yards to opposing backfields and the fourth worst yards per carry, which directly boosts both phases of a rush plus rec projection.

Marks already smashed this matchup earlier, posting 119 total yards and two scores on 21 touches, proving he can dominate this front when given volume. So with the backfield clearly his, confirmed again by Chubb seeing only six touches, this number is simply way too low for his current role and the matchup he draws.

#2 - C. Boswell: O 5.5 Kicking Points

Chris Boswell continues to be one of the most reliable kickers in contests, hitting more than 5.5 points in five of his last six games and averaging 8.3 during that stretch as Pittsburgh leans on him in scoring situations. His role grows even stronger in matchups where the offense moves the ball but stalls in the red zone, and this sets up as one of those spots. But the biggest edge here is Pittsburgh carrying the highest team total of the entire week, which means Boswell walks in with the highest projected scoring environment of the slate.

Cincinnati has also allowed the most points per game to opponents recently, giving Pittsburgh more scoring chances than usual. So with team environment, matchup, and recent production all pointing in the same direction, Boswell is in another strong position to go more than 5.5.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. If you want an edge this week, it starts with finding the mistakes in the market and attacking them early

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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