Passing TD

Week 12 is here. I’m dialing in strictly on passing touchdowns, and the market left a few QB numbers way off… in two minutes or less

#4 - Jared Goff: O 2.5 Pass TDs

Goff just came off one of the WORST accuracy games of his career, completing only 37.8% of passes with a 27.5% success rate in windy outdoor conditions. But inside the dome, he becomes one of the most efficient scorers in football. He’s 2ND in passer rating at home (116.0), completing nearly 70% of throws for 10 touchdowns and just 2 picks. The GIANTS play MAN COVERAGE on 41% of snaps, the MOST in the NFL, and that’s exactly where Goff has been elite, posting a 129.1 rating, 8.4 yards per attempt, and 10 touchdowns with ZERO interceptions.

He also ranks 4TH in play-action dropback rate (30%), facing a defense that’s 23RD against play action, which feeds directly into Detroit’s red-zone success. The Giants sit 28TH in passing points allowed per game (16.3), giving up touchdowns on 6.3% of opposing throws. So with the HIGHEST team total of Week 12, home-field efficiency, and the league’s most favorable coverage matchup, Goff is set up for a multi TD bounce-back, and 3 touchdowns feels like the baseline.

#3 - Lamar Jackson: O 2.5 Pass TDs

Jackson has struggled the past two weeks, completing just 56–58% of passes against elite man blitz teams in Minnesota and Cleveland. But the Jets are not built that way. They blitz the 8TH-MOST in the NFL (28.8%), yet rank 29TH in passing points allowed per attempt (0.518) since trading Sauce Gardner, a bottom three mark in the league. Jackson still ranks 1ST in passing points per attempt (0.649), proving he is the most efficient touchdown passer in football when defenses cannot finish pressure.

Against similar heavy blitz looks from Miami, he threw 3 touchdowns while going 8 of 10 vs the blitz. The Jets’ coverage has collapsed, allowing 3 straight top 10 QB scoring weeks to Flacco, Gabriel, and Maye, all finding the end zone multiple times. They are also 25TH in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (23.5 per game), forcing safeties to cheat down and opening throwing lanes behind them. So with a defense that brings pressure but cannot contain mobile passers, Lamar’s elite efficiency meets a bottom tier unit, and this sets up as a clear 3 TD breakout spot.

#2 - Drake Maye: O 2.5 Pass TDs

Drake Maye has been one of the most consistent touchdown passers in football, completing 73.5% of throws last week and logging 8 straight games above 8.0 yards per attempt, a streak no quarterback has matched since 2018. He leads the NFL in completion rate over expectation (+9.3%), consistently creating production beyond what coverage and leverage should allow. But now he runs into a Cincinnati defense that has completely fallen apart. The BENGALS rank 31ST in yards per completion (11.8) and 3RD-WORST in touchdown rate allowed (6.6%), giving up 17.9 passing points per game (31ST).

They have surrendered multiple passing scores to nearly every opponent this month, including 18.4 combined points to Rodgers and Rudolph last week, and they allow the 2ND-HIGHEST yards per pass attempt (7.9) with red-zone touchdowns on 73% of drives that reach the 20. Combine that with the HIGHEST projected total of the week, and you get the perfect intersection of volume and efficiency. So with Maye’s historic accuracy streak and Cincinnati’s bottom tier scoring profile through the air, this is exactly the kind of matchup where 3 passing touchdowns are the expected outcome, not the ceiling.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. Week 12’s QB matchups are loaded, and the edge is locking in these touchdown reads before kickoff

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA