Long-Shot
DraftKings, FanDuel. You know them.
But if you live in Texas, California, Florida, or any of the other states where those apps don't work?
You've been stuck.
Onyx fixes that.
Legal in 40+ states. Clean DK-style interface. Real cash prizes.
Right now they're giving $115 free. $15 at signup. $100 when you bet $10.
Code HOLKA.
#7 - S. Darnold: U 239.5 Pass Yards
Sam Darnold’s passing efficiency has dipped late in the season, and the matchup further caps his yardage ceiling.
• Has surpassed this number just three times over his last four games
• The Patriots allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards during the regular season
• The Patriots ranked ninth in explosive pass rate allowed and consistently limited downfield gains
When pressure limits efficiency and big plays are taken away, Darnold’s passing yardage stays suppressed.
#6 - K. Walker III: O 119.5 Total Yards
Kenneth Walker’s workload and versatility spike without backfield competition, raising his total yardage floor.
• Logged 45 total touches for 256 yards over the last two games without Charbonnet
• The Patriots allow the sixth-most receptions to running backs
• Walker ranked third in explosive runs among qualified backs during the regular season
When volume and big-play ability align, Walker’s total yardage clears comfortably. My #1 pick is a different Patriot looking to crush his reception prop.
#5 - G. Holani: O 14.5 Rec Yards
George Holani’s receiving role expands when backfield injuries force usage through the air.
• Caught three passes for 27 yards last week without Charbonnet
• Running backs account for 24% of New England’s allowed receptions, the third-highest rate in the NFL
• Denver’s backfield combined for five receptions against the Patriots last week
When backs are funneled targets underneath, Holani’s receiving yardage remains in play.
#4 - J. Smith-Njigba: U 99.5 Rec Yards
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s usage remains steady, but his recent output and matchup cap his yardage ceiling.
• Has surpassed this number just twice over his last eight games, averaging 82 receiving yards
• The Patriots allowed the sixth-fewest wide receiver yards this season
• Christian Gonzalez has allowed a 44.8% catch rate, the second-lowest among qualifying cornerbacks, and just one touchdown in coverage
When coverage limits efficiency and volume stays contained, Smith-Njigba’s yardage upside narrows.
#3 - J. Bobo: U 0.5 Rec Yards
Jake Bobo’s role remains minimal, keeping his receiving production near zero.
• Has just four receptions all season
• Averages fewer than four routes per game
• The Patriots allow the seventh-fewest receptions to wide receivers
When routes and opportunities are scarce, a catch is unlikely.
#2 - D. Maye: U 8.5 Rush Att
Drake Maye’s rushing volume drops against defenses that generate pressure without forcing scrambles.
• Has surpassed this number just five times all season
• Seattle forces the seventh-fewest quarterback rush attempts
• Maye has taken a sack on 45.5% of his pressures in the playoffs, the worst rate among playoff quarterbacks
When pressure turns into sacks instead of escapes, rushing attempts dry up.
Get My #1 Pick for this Game
Become a Drop Army paying subscriber to get access to the #1 Pick
Unlock the pick now
